A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences projects that Covid-19 will reduce US life expectancy by 1.13 years by 2020, with a disproportionate number of deaths among the black and Latino population. Coupled with preliminary estimates of US mortality rates for the first half of the year, the data shows a marked rise in the death rate as the pandemic took hold of the nation.
Estimated reductions for the black and Latino populations are three to four times those for Caucasians. Accordingly, Covid-19 is expected to reverse more than 10 years of progress in closing the black-and-white gap in life expectancy and reverse the earlier Latino mortality benefit. by more than 70%, ”said study researchers Theresa Andrasfay of the University of Southern California and Noreen Goldman of Princeton University’s Office of Population Research.
“Black and Latino Americans have experienced a disproportionate burden of Covid-19 morbidity and mortality, due to persistent structural inequalities that increase the risk of Covid-19 exposure and the mortality risk for those infected,” the study added.
Prior to the pandemic, the US had made steady progress in life expectancy, although it had slowed in recent years.
But the pandemic has slowed all that progress and also widened the gap between black and white life expectancy.
The black and Latino populations are estimated to experience a decrease in life expectancy at birth of 2.10 and 3.05 years, respectively, both of which are several times the 0.68 year decline for Caucasians. These projections imply an increase in nearly 40% in the black population. – White gap in life expectancy, from 3.6 years to more than 5 years, eliminating the progress made in narrowing this gap since 2006, “the study added.
CDC: The death rate in the US is up significantly in the second quarter
New data from the National Center for Health Statistics suggests that Covid-19 caused a significant rise in the US mortality rate.
The age-adjusted all-cause mortality rate was 769 per 100,000 in the first quarter of 2020 and rose to 840 in the second quarter of the year. In comparison, the death rate for the second quarter of 2019 was 702 per 100,000, the NCHS said.
While the report shows that the death rate has risen significantly in 2020, it provides an incomplete snapshot of the pandemic, as data is currently only available for the first two quarters.
Last week, CDC statisticians said Covid-19 was likely the third leading cause of death in 2020. They estimate there were between 316,252 and 431,792 additional deaths throughout 2020.
Heart disease is the leading cause of death and cancer is the second leading cause of death in the US.
These estimates are based on all death registers received and processed by NCHS on November 27, 2020.
A multi-year effect
The Andrasfay and Goldman study used data from the Census Bureau and actual and expected deaths from the pandemic from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation of the University of Washington and the National Center for Health Statistics. They also used different models and estimates for mortality rates.
“Our average estimate indicates a decrease in life expectancy at birth in the US of 1.13 years to 77.48 years, lower than any year since 2003,” they said.
“This impact is about 10 times greater than the alarming annual decline several years ago, which was largely attributed to drug overdoses, other external causes, and respiratory and cardiovascular disease,” the study added.
The US is already lagging behind other wealthy countries in terms of life expectancy and the pandemic will exacerbate it.
“The US decline in life expectancy for 2020 is expected to be greater than that of most other high-income countries, indicating that the United States – which already had a life expectancy lower than that of any other developed country with a high income before the pandemic – will see his life expectancy fall even further behind his peers, ”the study said.
The effects of the pandemic are expected to last well beyond 2020.
“Some reduction in life expectancy may persist beyond 2020 because of the ongoing Covid-19 mortality and the long-term health, social and economic consequences of the pandemic,” the study added.
Maggie Fox and Jessica Firger contributed to this report.