Can the Charlotte Hornets continue their NBA playoff progress without star rookie LaMelo Ball?
The Hornets announced on Sunday that Ball, the third overall pick in this year’s draft, suffered a fractured right wrist. According to Adrian WojnarowskiESPNs are expected to miss the rest of the season, which is a huge disappointment given the level of play the point guard showed.
Led by newcomers Ball and Gordon Hayward alongside Terry Rozier, Charlotte finds herself in the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. At 20-21, the Hornets are only 1.5 games from fourth in the East, but also 1.5 games from 10th and must win two road games to reach the postseason.
How will LaMelo’s injury affect Charlotte’s push to the playoffs? How should the Hornets approach Thursday’s trading deadline? And what does Ball’s absence mean for the Rookie of the Year race? Let’s analyze the possible consequences of the unfortunate injury.
Ball’s production translates into wins
Last month, we discussed with Mike Schmitz just how historically Ball’s level of productivity has been for a 19-year-old rookie. Nothing has changed since then. At least LaMelo has gained traction since arriving in Charlotte in early February. In 21 games as a starter, he averaged 19.5 points, 6.2 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game.
Perhaps most importantly, Ball has put those numbers together remarkably efficiently for such a young player. His actual firing rate of .562 (TS%) is better than the average point guard (.560) in general, and he’s improved to .586 as a starter. While unsurprisingly, he has to contend with sales from time to time (he averages 3.5 every 36 minutes), his scoring efficiency is in stark contrast to that of No. 1 Anthony Edwards of the Minnesota Timberwolves, whose .483 TS % more typical of a developing adolescent.
As a result, Ball is more than an exciting infusion of hope for a franchise that hasn’t yet to win a playoff series in 16 seasons – he’s been an important part of getting the Hornets back into the playoff scene. They are 11-10 since promoting Ball to the starting line-up despite playing 10 of those games without starter Devonte ‘Graham, who has returned as a backup since the All-Star break.
On the other hand, a healthy Graham means that Charlotte’s coach, James Borrego, he can still put together a solid base spin when Ball is absent. The Hornets are sure to return with Graham and Rozier, who started together during the 2019-2020 season and for the first month, more this year, with Malik Monk and the Martin twins as backup options.
According to advanced NBA statistics, the Graham-Rozier lineups have almost even played without Ball this season (net rating of minus 0.5), so Charlotte’s push to the playoffs is barely sinking. But the Hornets have little room for additional injuries at the point guard. Ball of Graham have been on the field more than 90% of the team’s minutes this season, so Rozier will be asked to make more plays than he has done all year. And Charlotte has no traditional point guard other than rookie Grant Riller, so an injury to Graham or Rozier would force Borrego to rely on Hayward as a second forward.
As mentioned, there is also little space if the Hornets want to avoid a difficult access road into the late season. Before Ball’s injury, projections based on ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gave Charlotte a 27% chance of finishing in the top six and avoiding play-in. With just a handful of games separating home advantage from last place in the play-in, a win or two out the rest of the way could have a huge impact on the Hornets’ positioning.
Possible help with the trade deadline for Hornets?
The injury from the ball should affect how the Hornets approach the deadline. It was possible that Charlotte could have used $ 4 million in cap space along with veteran center Cody Zeller’s $ 15.4 million declining salary to find another key player for a push to the playoffs. That never made sense for a team whose most promising player is a teenager, and it seems even more unlikely if Ball is out of the line-up.
Ideally, the Hornets would use their cap space to win back a contract from another team. Because rosters are limited to 15 players with full NBA contracts during the season, uneven deals where a team recovers more players than it sends to match the salary quickly get complicated. Charlotte can step in to add one of those players using an open spot on the roster while receiving a cash compensation or with a second round draft pick as well.
The Hornets can use flexibility to help out another team and add depth to the point guard. For example, if the Golden State Warriors wanted to move Brad Wanamaker’s $ 2.3 million salary to lower his luxury tax bill, now that Nico Mannion has earned a spot on the rotation, Charlotte would be a natural destination.
If not, I would call the Timberwolves on backup point guard Jordan McLaughlin, who has a two-way contract but has been productive every time he’s seen rotational minutes. If McLaughlin could be hired in exchange for a cheap second-round pick (the Hornets have second-round players from both the Brooklyn Nets and LA Clippers this year), he’d add valuable insurance behind Graham and Rozier.
Ball may still be Rookie of the Year
While not as significant as the shock to Charlotte, Ball’s injury opens the door for another player to win the Rookie of the Year award, the one he apparently secured when he was healthy. At the same time, the Rookie of the Year didn’t rely on good health as much as the MVP, which I spoke about on Saturday after LeBron James sprained his ankle.
In 2011-12, Kyrie Irving won the Rookie of the Year award while playing 77% of the games in the blocking-shortened season (51 of 66), while Brandon Roy won with just 70% in 2006-07 (57 of 82 ). And in 1985-86, Patrick Ewing was Rookie of the Year despite playing just 50 games (61%), not far from Ball’s 57% (41 of 72) when his season really ended.
With a smaller field and more variety in field productivity, sustainability is inevitably a minor factor for Rookie of the Year. We saw voters set a lower limit on the number of games needed when Joel Embiid finished third in the vote in 2016-17, when he was clearly the most effective rookie but only played 31 games (38%).
Compared to 2016-17, when Malcolm Brogdon became the first player to be selected in the second round to win Rookie of the Year since Woody Sauldsberry in 1957-58, the field looks deeper this season. Still, Ball had achieved a tremendous advantage in terms of statistical value. Consider Ball’s advantage in terms of wins over replacement (WAR) in ESPN’s real plus-minus.
Rookies – leaders in wins over substitution
1. LaMelo Ball: 4.2 WAR
2. Immanuel Quickley: 1.8 (WAR)
3. Desmond Bane: 1.2 (WAR)
4. Saddiq Bey: 1.2 (WAR)
Isaiah Stewart: 0.9 (WAR)
Ball has had nearly twice as many replacements wins as any other rookie to date, leading a group made up of players selected outside of the top 10 who generally thrive in smaller roles. His lead over the other top five picks in generating per-game stats that typically translate into Rookie of the Year is even more dramatic. No one else in this group scores better than the replacement level so far.
WAR del ‘top 5’ del draft
1. LaMelo Ball: 4.2 (WAR)
2. James Wiseman: 0.0 (WAR)
3. Anthony Edwards: -1.2 (WAR)
4. Patrick Williams: -1.4 (WAR)
Isaac Okoro: -1.9 (WAR)
It’s too early to rule out the Rookie of the Year race as it’s possible that a contender could explode in the last two months of the season. But the advantage that Ball has at the moment will make it difficult to capture.