Sitting at 7-13 on the year with only four confirmed games scheduled to close out the regular season, the odds for Kentucky to turn things around are slim to say the least. Even considering John Calipari’s attempt to add ‘a few games’ to the schedule during the final week of the regular season, we’re talking about six more games heading into SEC Tournament play, which means that the absolute best the winning percentage that UK can have is 0.500 by 13-13 overall.
Of course, the Wildcats can end the regular season with a magical eight-game streak, make a run in Nashville, and claim the SEC title to earn an NCAA Tournament bid, sort of creating a restart of the season. Coach Cal and the players are definitely dreaming big and will take every media opportunity to talk about how they still have enough to play for.
But what if the UK no longer has a runway and they can’t win everything in Nashville, essentially ending the team’s chances of making it to the NCAA tournament? What if they never get the storybook finish Calipari hopes for?
With that opportunity very much on the table, along with the never-ending COVID-19 hurdles, inconsistent play, injuries, lack of fans and, to put it bluntly, a disappointing college experience this season, a two-year plan would make fans feel better about the entire product? Rather than seeing it as a horrible season, what if the UK avoided a massive exodus and returned most of its roster, creating a two-year project for Calipari and the Kentucky coaching staff?
Think back to the 2019-20 roster in which Nick Richards (junior), Immanuel Quickley (sophomore) EJ Montgomery (sophomore) and Ashton Hagans (sophomore) all returned from the year before, with Nate Sestina (graduate transfer) also playing significantly time. The team finished 25-6 in the year, but won nine of the last ten games on the course, with the only loss in a game the Wildcats led by 17 points in the second half against Tennessee. We’ll never find out if that team was able to win a national championship, but they played just as well as anyone on the track, and a big reason for that was the striking play of the team’s experienced leaders.
Looking back at the Calipari era in Lexington, that 2019/20 group was the most experienced in terms of recurring pieces and inbound graduate transfers since the 2016-17 roster brought back five in Isaiah Briscoe, Dominique Hawkins, Isaac Humphries, Mychal Mulder and Derek Willis. The historic roster for 2014-15 returned the most during Calipari’s tenure, with eight exchange players in Willie Cauley-Stein, Aaron Harrison, Andrew Harrison, Hawkins, Dakari Johnson, Marcus Lee, Alex Poythress and Willis.
Before we go any further, let me make it clear that it is impossible to register returnees that far in advance, no matter how the season goes or how individual players perform. At Kentucky, players who should returns are not always the ones that actually do that, with last year being the best example. In an Ideal World, Hagans, Montgomery and Kahlil Whitney (who left the program in January 2020) do not competing in the NBA Draft – all three went unfinished – and Johnny Juzang returns for another season instead of leaving the program, leaving Kentucky with five recurring pieces to work with this year instead of just one in Keion Brooks Jr. They didn’t, and the UK continued to struggle to replace 94 percent of his score, 98.6 percent of his assists, and 92.4 percent of his minutes from the year before.
In any case, team success has been there in recent years. They got the full Kentucky experience with fans, high-profile events, and campus life, even if the 2019-20 group snatched their post-season dreams because of COVID-19. This year, losses are piling up and individual performance on the field has been inconsistent and largely disappointing. As a result, stock design has fallen across the board, with Isaiah Jackson the one exception.
Given the context of the season as it stands, it is certainly plausible that the UK could see as many as eight returning players from the current squad (including West Virginia transfer Oscar Tshiebwe).
We’ll start with the likely departures in Brandon Boston Jr., Terrence Clarke and Jackson. Despite significant shooting problems for Boston to start the year, along with an injury-ridden season for Clarke, both players came in with one-year plans, and that hasn’t changed. It would be a big shock to see both come back for the second season. And with Jackson exploding like a foolproof first-round pick, getting closer to the consensus lottery with his elite shot-blocking and rebound skills, fans should also prepare for his inevitable departure.
Almost pursuing his professional options last off-season, senior transfer Olivier Sarr also came in with a one-year plan, and it would be a surprise to see him return as well.
But from there, anything and everything is on the table.
In importance, Keion Brooks Jr. the most important part to keep an eye out as the sophomore attacker has shown significant growth from year one to year two, but he’s not currently on any of the major design boards in 2021. Factor In the calf injury that left him out until January kept the game, Brooks could consider this season a bridge year before leaving 2021-22 as one of the best returnees in college basketball.
The other big name to watch? Transfer graduate Davion Mintz, who has emerged in crunch time as Kentucky’s go-to scorer, three three-point go-ahead tries and two game winners in SEC play. After obtaining his master’s degree, both Mintz and his father have acknowledged that a return for his sophomore season with Kentucky and sixth as a college basketball player is on the table. That would give the UK back two of the top five scorers, with both Brooks and Mintz averaging at least 10 points per game.
Oscar Tshiebwe was able to round out the fringe players technically Enter the NBA Draft and scare fans similar to that of Hamidou Diallo, who tested the draft waters after his mid-year addition in 2016-17. After leaving West Virginia mid-season and applying to open the spring semester, he’s already done quite a bit of work to get to Lexington and prepare for the 2021-22 season when he could have just opted out and started training for the design. As we’ve seen before, you can never say never in Kentucky, but Tshiebwe is expected back next season as the team’s anchor in the frontcourt.
From there, you’re past the point of players even remotely ready to explore their professional options, with all expected returns barring a transfer.
With an average of 30.3 minutes per game – equal to second place on the team – Devin Askew has certainly had his share of the battle in terms of shooting and turnover, but sophomore guards have seen consistent growth in the UK under Calipari, including Immanuel Quickley, Ashton Hagans, Tyler Ulis, Isaiah Briscoe and Andrew Harrison. Despite Kentucky’s recent string of bad luck with West Coast talent moving away from the program, sources close to Askew tell KSR the Sacramento, CA resident is pleased with Calipari’s harsh coaching and constructive criticism, his role on the team and long-term plans. for him in Lexington. As he promised before arriving on campus, a transfer out of season is not expected.
As for the other likely returnees, Jacob Toppin came in as a long-term project for Calipari and wasn’t even expected to play this season ahead of the NCAA’s decision to award a free year in which they qualify for college athletes competing in winter sports. . Establishing himself as one of Kentucky’s most consistent role players next to the bench, there is strong optimism within the program about Toppin’s potential down the road. It would also be a shock to see him leave.
Like Toppin, Lance Ware came in as a multi-year project, looking for long-term development with his body and game as a whole. He knew from the start that his path would likely be different from other high-profile prospects, so the fluctuating minutes and production shouldn’t have come as a shock. There will be no more transfer messes with him as of today, and unless he feels like the odd man out in the frontcourt or he’s being recruited, they aren’t expected to take place off-season.
And then there were two more, with Dontaie Allen and Cam’Ron Fletcher seen as the two biggest question marks for next season.
Even after Allen’s zero-minute performance in Kentucky’s loss to Louisville earlier this season, those close to the freshman told KSR that there was no transfer on the table during the winter break or the coming off season, regardless of the circumstances. In recent weeks, however, that tune has shifted, with many people telling KSR that the 6-foot-6 sniper would take a wait and see approach to the off-season and its future as a whole. While it’s certainly no guarantee that Allen will leave the program – Falmouth native, KY grew up a diehard British fan and understands he was a few steps behind due to injury – there is an expectation that Calipari may need to recruit a little and be on the same page about fit and use in the future. Above all, the optics of losing a former Kentucky Mr. Basketball highlight at the transfer portal are a bad look for the program.
As for Fletcher, the frustrations of the residents of St. Louis, MO were well documented and published early in the season, with Calipari sending him home in December for “actions detrimental to (the) team.” There are mixed opinions among those close to the freshman attacker about his future, with a select few believing his departure is inevitable off-season, and others thinking he will work out of Calipari’s doghouse himself for the summer ahead towards a turnaround in the sophomore campaign.
From the standpoint of pure talent and development, both players must return. Shall they? It will be interesting to see how things turn out.
Suppose Kentucky makes the clean sweep with players who can (and should) return in 2021-22, eight in total. Without adding new signers or transfers from high school, this is a rough sketch on the team’s depth chart going into next season, give or take a few position adjustments:
Devin Askew / Nolan Hickman
Davion Mintz / Dontaie Allen
Keion Brooks Jr./Cam’Ron Fletcher
Daimion Collins / Jacob Toppin / Bryce Hopkins
Oscar Tshiebwe / Lance Ware
The starters and positional bouts are subject to change, but as things stand, that’s 11 players on a deep and experienced roster with three traditional sophomores, one red-shirt sophomore, three juniors, and a sixth-year senior. It would be a roster very similar to that of a traditional, balanced, competitive college basketball team, as opposed to a constant tourniquet of players entering the professional ranks, something that fans have been begging for throughout the Calipari era.
The season has been long and frustrating, but would avoiding a massive exodus make up for it in 2021-22? Would a multi-year roster reconstruction make missing the NCAA tournament worth it this season?