Tens of millions of people are expected to travel to family gatherings or winter vacations at Christmas, despite pleas from public health experts who fear the result could be a fresh rise in COVID-19 cases.
In the US, AAA predicts that between December 23 and January 3, approximately 85 million people will travel, most of them by car. If true, that would be down nearly a third from a year ago, but still a massive movement of people in the midst of a pandemic.
Jordan Ford, 24, who was fired in March as a guest relations associate at Disneyland, said he plans to visit both his own and his friend’s families in Virginia and Arkansas at Christmas.
“It’s pretty safe – everyone wears a mask, they thoroughly clean the cabin,” said Ford, who has traveled and tested regularly from his home in Anaheim, California for the past few months. “After you have conquered that first journey since the start of the pandemic, I think you will feel comfortable anyway.”
Experts worry that Christmas and New Year will turn into super spreader events as many people are dropping their guard – either from pandemic fatigue or the hopeful news that vaccines are starting to spread.
“At the beginning of the pandemic, people didn’t travel because they didn’t know what was coming,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco, “but there is a sense. now: “If I get it, it will be mild, it’s like a cold.” ”
The seven-day moving average of newly reported infections in the US has risen from about 176,000 a day just before Thanksgiving to over 215,000 a day. It’s too early to calculate how much of that increase is due to travel and gatherings over Thanksgiving, but experts believe they are a factor.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention say that “delaying travel and staying home is the best way to protect yourself and others from COVID-19.” People who insist on traveling should consider getting tested for the virus before and after their trip and limiting non-essential activities for seven days after the trip with a negative test result and 10 days if not tested.
Other countries have imposed restrictions on the holidays. Last month, England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland agreed to allow a maximum of three households to mix between December 23 and December 27, regardless of local restrictions.
The German automobile association ADAC says holiday traffic will be greatly reduced. The reasons for this are not only the government’s caution and insistence on avoiding personal contact, but also the simple fact that many traditional destinations, from the country’s enchanting Christmas markets to the Alpine ski resorts, have closed.
Christmas markets, which normally draw large crowds to city centers for steaming mugs of mulled wine, have been canceled; a lockdown imposed on December 9 closed retail considered non-essential.
Meanwhile, the usual autobahn pilgrimage to the ski slopes, which usually begins on December 26, will be largely absent since France, Germany and Italy ordered the closure of ski resorts. Borders are open, but with significant limitations, such as quarantine requirements.
In Latin America, a few countries have imposed some restrictions on trying to prevent people from traveling or meeting during the holidays, but others advised people to only distance themselves socially and skip parties.
Panama has some of the strictest regulations, including a curfew until January 4 and a ban on leaving home all the way from December 25 to 28 and January 1 to 4, unless it is for essential activities, such as buying food or medicine. Peru, one of the most affected countries in the region, has banned the use of private cars on Christmas Eve and Day and New Year’s Eve and Day in hopes of discouraging people from traveling.
In the US, Rachel Watterson has postponed her New Year’s Eve wedding because her fiancé’s family cannot travel to the United States from their home in Germany. Instead, the couple plans to flee and will fly from their Chicago home to Hawaii with her parents, brother, and a friend. They chose Hawaii because of requirements such as pre-arrival coronavirus testing and a quick test at the airport.
“We felt this was one of the few safe choices we can make when we travel,” Watterson said.
Tim Brooks, a 37-year-old engineer in Long Beach, California, canceled a trip to Grand Cayman over a ban on international visitors, then scrapped a Christmas visit to his parents in North Carolina as infections spiked in California and across the country.
“If it were us it wouldn’t be that bad, but we have older parents and we try to keep them safe,” Brooks said.
Airports and planes will be much less crowded this year in what is normally a peak travel season. So far, air travel in the United States has fallen 67% in December from last year. If Thanksgiving is any indication, the number of travelers will rise for the rest of the month, but airlines are warning bookings have slowed since the latest increase in COVID-19 cases.
According to figures from Airline Data Inc. The country’s four largest airlines are now showing schedules for December and January that are somewhere between 33% and 46% smaller than a year earlier.
Last week, the average flight within the US was only 49% full compared to more than 80% a year ago, according to the Airlines for America trade group.
The short-term outlook remains bleak for other travel-related businesses, including those that rely on winter tourism.
In the ski island of Vermont, the Trapp Family Lodge in Stowe usually sells out over Christmas week, but last week only half of the 96 rooms were booked. It was a similar story at the nearby Lodge at Spruce Peak. Operators of both lodges blamed travel restrictions, particularly quarantine requirements triggered by crossing state lines.
“It’s frustrating as a company to be essentially banned from doing your job and not being able to support your employees or your community,” said Sam von Trapp, executive vice president of the family’s lodge. “At the same time, we understand that there is a very good intention behind all these limitations.”
Cruise ships often have the highest prices at Christmas and other holidays when children are out of school, but few ships sail this season. Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Norwegian and Disney have canceled all US sailings through February 28. Travel in other parts of the world is usually delayed.
Florida, which relies heavily on winter tourism, is also taking a big hit. The two-week period around Christmas is normally the busiest time of the year for Walt Disney World in Orlando, said Len Testa, the president of TouringPlans.com, who predicts park attendance. But this year, the Magic Kingdom has limited park attendance to 35%, so Testa only expects about 32,000 people on those days.
Testa also expects visitor numbers to be lower than normal from January to March, with many moving their trips to May or later.
“Many families will delay their spring break outings until they are vaccinated,” he said.
Tara Kelley planned to drive from her home in Milligan, Florida, to Orange City, Florida at 7:00 AM to visit her mother and stepfather for Christmas. But Kelley’s wife recently had surgery and spent a day in a hospital where there was a risk of exposure to the coronavirus, so they called off the trip.
“We were literally planning this since February,” said Kelley. “It’s a blow.”
Theresa Medina, a 55-year-old retiree from South Boston, is still deciding whether she and her husband will visit his mother in the Dominican Republic this winter. She’s 80% sure they will, and she’s already packing a box to ship before they arrive. But the couple plan to discuss it with her husband’s doctor in January.
If they go, Medina said they will undergo coronavirus testing and wear protective clothing, including face shields and masks.
“We may look strange on the plane, but precautions are precautions,” she said.
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Lisa Rathke in Montpelier, Vermont, Wilson Ring in Stowe, Vermont, and David McHugh in Frankfurt, Germany contributed to this report.
David Koenig can be reached at www.twitter.com/airlinewriter
Dee-Ann Durbin can be reached at www.twitter.com/deeanndurbin_ap