What’s new?
– Tonight, the prediction model’s consensus shifted our approaching winter storm slightly south. That is a slightly colder and snowier solution.
– Those models have also come to a much better agreement on the timing of the transition from start, peak and winter mix.
– That said, the end time of this storm system is a bit hazy right now – much of Friday’s precipitation could linger over New Jersey.
—I remain very concerned that an icy mix (sleet and icy rain) will be the ultimate ‘snow breaker’, especially in the southern half of the state.
– You will notice that I have adjusted my snow contours slightly to the south. And I added an area that covers the south coast. But I choose to kick major shifts on the way to the next update.
– The bottom line remains the same: Wherever you are in New Jersey, Thursday will be wintry and messy.
Wednesday
Quiet, although cold. Wednesday morning temperatures are in the 20s, with an icy wind pushing the wind chill (“feels like” temperature) to the single digits and teens. The wind dies down, the sun comes out and the high temperatures only reach around freezing on Wednesday afternoon. The clouds will increase late in the day.
Storm Timeline
—Early Thursday morning (2am to 6am) … A few snow showers will engulf the Garden State. Dry air will make it difficult for those flakes to reach the ground, and only minimal accumulation is expected by dawn Thursday.
—Middle Thursday morning (6am to 10am) … A burst of steady snow spreads from southwest to northeast. Once flakes start to fall, conditions will quickly go downhill, with likely a few hours of moderate to heavy snowfall.
—Afternoon Thursday (10am to 1pm) … The burden of the storm continues, with heavy snow tires delivering 1+ inch per hour of snowfall. Meanwhile, warming in the mid-atmosphere will cause a snow-to-winter mix transition along the south coast.
—Thursday afternoon (1 PM to 5 PM) … The blend line will continue to drift north as the warmer continues to the mid-level. Still snowing (north) and freezing rain (south) fairly steadily.
—Thursday evening to early Friday morning (5pm to 5am) … The precipitation intensity should lighten in the evening and at night. Southern and coastal NJ transition to rain. Central NJ is covered by a winter mix (snow, sleet and sleet) most of the night. Northern NJ should like light to moderate snow, with possibly some sleet in it.
—Friday during the day (5:00 am to 5:00 pm) … A wave of colder air will cause a final transition to more snow and sleet, instead of sleet and rain. Previously, I was hoping that the rainfall would end in the early morning hours. But I’m not so sure right now – the winter mix can last until part of the afternoon.
Accumulations
-6 to 10 inches from almost all the snow to the north.
—4 to 8 inches of healthy snowfall between Philly and NYC. Based on 00Z model guidelines, I was so seduced to push the entire northern half of the state to a forecast of 6-10 “. But the sleet. Oh, the sleet! I’m still very concerned that warming in the middle of the atmosphere is transitioning to an icy mix. will force this far north across the I-78 corridor Thursday night, that will quickly end the build-up and possibly cause a slight glaze of ice.
-2 to 4 inches for most of South Jersey. A significant period of mixing and icing (due to sleet and sleet) and dry trenches will be problems south of a line between Bellmawr and Belmar. (I’ve always wanted to call those two cities in the same sentence!) An ice build-up of half an inch is possible here, which is quite significant.
—0 to 2 inches off the south coast, with a rapid burst of snow at the start, then winter mix and pure rain for the rest of the storm. Depending on the length and makeup of that mix, there may be some slight frosting concerns.
Plus, some models are still pushing 1-2 “daytime snowfall Friday. Eh. Given the fuzziness of the end times and the unknown if that snow will actually stick to the ground, I’ve chosen to stay conservative for now.
Coastal flooding
Tide guidance shows about a foot of storm surge on Friday. That’s enough to cause a minor flooding of the coastal waters during one or both of the Friday flood cycles.
Winter Storm Watch
No change to our watch, valid for inland New Jersey from Thursday morning to part of Friday.
What’s next?
—I can’t wait to see what the 12Z model suite does with the mixing line. I want to see a good consensus on the northern rim and the timing of that wave of warmth in the middle of the atmosphere and freezing rain and ice. Only then will I have more confidence in who will get solid snow and who will be caught.
– Expect the National Weather Service watch to be upgraded to warnings and advisories by Wednesday afternoon. Who gets what depends on the output of the 12Z model.
—Next update to the weather blog comes Wednesday around 5:00 PM, with more details and specifics, and an updated snow / impact map.
—I will be publishing another weather forecast update early Thursday morning with my last call.
As always, we will have on-air and online updates for the duration of the storm.
Dan Zarrow is the chief meteorologist at Townsquare Media New Jersey. follow him Facebook or Twitter for the latest weather forecast and real-time weather updates.