MOSCOW (AP) – The return to Russia from Germany by opposition leader Alexei Navalny was marked by chaos and popular anger, ending, almost predictably, with his arrest.
The January 17 flight from Berlin, where Navalny was recovering from nerve poisoning for nearly five months, carried him and his wife, along with a group of journalists who documented the trip. But the plane was diverted from its intended airport in Moscow to another in the capital in what was seen as an apparent attempt to discourage a welcome from the crowd that awaited it.
The authorities also immediately took him into custody, sparking outrage at home and abroad. Some Western countries threatened sanctions, and his team called for nationwide demonstrations on Saturday.
Navalny had prepared his own surprise for his return: a video reveals that a lavish “palace” was being built for President Vladimir Putin on the Black Sea through an elaborate corruption scheme. His team posted it to YouTube on Tuesday, and within 48 hours it had been viewed over 42 million times.
Navalny is facing years in jail after a previous conviction he says was politically motivated, while political commentators say there are no good options for the Kremlin.
The AP looks at its long standoff with authorities:
WHO IS ALEXEI NAVALNY?
Navalny, 44, is a campaigner for corruption and the Kremlin’s fiercest critic. He has outlived many opposition members and is not deterred by relentless attempts to stop his work.
He has released dozens of damning reports exposing corruption in Putin’s Russia. He has been a stimulating figure in mass protests, including unprecedented demonstrations in 2011-2012 sparked by reports of widespread manipulation of parliamentary elections.
Navalny was convicted twice of criminal charges: embezzlement and later fraud. He received suspended sentences of five years and three and a half years. He condemned the convictions as politically motivated, and the European Court of Human Rights disputed both convictions.
Navalny tried to challenge Putin in the 2018 elections but was barred from participating by one of his convictions. Nevertheless, he drew crowds of supporters almost all over the country.
He is arrested many times and has served several times in prison for allegations of leading protests. In 2017, an attacker threw a green antiseptic liquid in his face, affecting his eyesight. He was also hospitalized in 2019 after suspected prison poisoning.
None of that stopped him. In August 2020, he fell ill during a domestic flight in Siberia and the pilot quickly landed in Omsk, where he was hospitalized. His supporters managed to get him to fly to Berlin, where he was in a coma for more than two weeks and was diagnosed with a Soviet-era nerve agent poisoned – an accusation the Kremlin denied.
After recovering, Navalny released a recording of a phone call he made with a man he claimed was a member of the Russian Federal Security Service, or FSB, who allegedly poisoned him. The FSB dismissed the recording as fake, but it still shocked many at home and abroad.
Navalny promised to return to Russia and continue his work, while the authorities threatened to arrest him.
WHY HAS NAVALNY RETURNED AT ALL?
Navalny said he did not leave Russia voluntarily, but rather ended up “in an intensive care unit in Germany”. He said he never considered the option of staying abroad.
“It doesn’t seem right to me that Alexei Navalny is calling for a revolution from Berlin,” he explained in an interview in October, referring to himself in the third person. “When I do something, I want to share the risks with people who work in my office.”
Analysts say it would have been impossible for Navalny to remain relevant as an opposition leader outside of Russia. “Staying abroad and becoming a political expatriate would kill a public politician,” said Masha Lipman, an independent political analyst.
Nikolai Petrov, a senior research fellow in Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia program, echoed her sentiment, saying, “Active, smart people who can take real action and participate in elections … while in the country, once in the abroad, ending up cut off from the real connection with the people. “
WHY HAS NAVALNY BEEN SEEN PRISON NOW?
His suspended sentence of the 2014 conviction was on probation that expired in December 2020. Authorities said Navalny was regularly checked personally by law enforcement officials.
During the last days of Navalny’s probation, the Russian prison service placed him on a wanted list and accused him of not appearing for these checks, including during his recovery in Germany. Officials have petitioned the court for him to serve the full 3½ years imprisonment. After his return, Navalny was held for 30 days, with a hearing to review his sentence on February 2.
Earlier this month, Russia’s Commission of Inquiry opened another criminal investigation against him for fraud allegations, alleging that he misappropriated donations to his Anti-Corruption Foundation. If convicted, he could face up to 10 years in prison.
IS NAVALNY THREATING THE KREMLIN?
Putin never mentions Navalny by name, and state media portrays him as an insignificant blogger. But he has managed to spread his reach far beyond Moscow through his highly popular YouTube accounts, including this week’s allegations about the massive Black Sea estate.
His infrastructure of regional offices set up nationwide in 2017 has helped him challenge the government by mobilizing voters. In 2018, Navalny launched a project called Smart Voting designed to promote candidates most likely to defeat those of the Kremlin’s dominant party in United Russia.
In 2019, the project helped opposition candidates win 20 of the 45 seats on Moscow City Council, and last year United Russia lost the majority in the legislature in three cities in regional elections.
Navalny has pledged to use the strategy in this year’s parliamentary elections, which will determine who controls the Duma in 2024. That’s when Putin’s current term ends and he is expected to seek re-election, thanks to last year’s constitutional reforms.
Analysts believe Navalny is able to influence this important mood, reason enough to want him out of the picture.
WHAT HAPPENS NOW?
Analysts say the return of Navalny was a major blow to Putin’s image and left the Kremlin in a dilemma.
Putin has worked mainly from his home during the coronavirus outbreak, and the widespread perception that he has stayed away from the public doesn’t quite compare with Navalny’s daring return to the country where he was poisoned and arrested, Petrov said. Chatham House.
“It doesn’t matter whether people support Navalny or not; they see these two images and Putin loses, ”he said.
Commentators say there is not a good choice for the Kremlin: by imprisoning Navalny for a long time, he becomes a martyr and could lead to mass protests, while letting go threatens parliamentary elections.
So far, the crackdown has only helped Navalny, “and now even thinking loyalists, if not on his side, are certainly not on the side of poisoners and persecutors,” Alexander Baunov of the Moscow Carnegie Center wrote in a recent article. .
All eyes are on what is happening during Saturday’s scheduled protests, Petrov said. In 2013, Navalny was quickly released from prison after a five-year sentence for embezzlement after a large crowd gathered at the Kremlin.
Putin’s government has since become much stricter on dissent, so mass protests are unlikely to lead to Navalny’s immediate release, Petrov said. But the Kremlin still fears that a crackdown could destabilize the situation, and the size of the rallies could indicate how the public would react to Navalny who has been imprisoned for a long time.
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Associated Press journalist Kostya Manenkov contributed.