Why Jaguars, presumed No. 1 NFL design pick Trevor Lawrence, faces a tough road to success

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. The Jacksonville Jaguars are just over a week from the franchise quarterback the team has been trying to find for 20 years.

Trevor Lawrence is the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck (and perhaps Peyton Manning), the fourth highest-rated quarterback prospect ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. and a man who lost just four games as a starter since his freshman year of high school.

He is so good that he prompted Gil Brandt, who served nine future Hall of Famers as vice president of player staff for the Dallas Cowboys in 29 seasons, to describe him as follows: “Trevor Lawrence is [John] Elway athlete [and] Manning Accuracy. So I think you get the best of both. A franchise that hasn’t done much good since it had the NFL’s best record in 1999 and that has lost 10 or more games in nine of the past 10 seasons is expected to last. next week (April 29-May 1, ESPN / ESPN app). Jaguar fans – as well as those within the organization, especially in terms of ticket sales – are understandably ecstatic, hoping that Lawrence is the key to the franchise that finally has some continued success. and became an annual playoff contender.

But a little caution to temper the exaggerated expectations: Drafting a quarterback with the first overall pick doesn’t guarantee a future Super Bowl appearance. Or even a playoff performance. And in some cases not even a season with a winning record.

What does history say?

Eight of the 25 quarterbacks who won first overall since the AFL / NFL merger in 1970 made it to a Super Bowl with the team they fielded, but only three won a championship: Terry Bradshaw (Pittsburgh Steelers), Troy Aikman (Dallas Cowboys) and Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts). Three others – Jim Plunkett (Oakland / Los Angeles Raiders), John Elway (Denver Broncos), and Eli Manning (New York Giants) – won Super Bowls with subsequent teams, and Elway and Manning were swapped shortly after being called up.

Eli Manning, who was called up by the San Diego Chargers in 2004, is the last quarterback to win first overall and win a Super Bowl (2007 and 2011 seasons). Only two of the 11 quarterbacks who have taken first overall since Eli Manning made it to a Super Bowl – Cam Newton, with the Carolina Panthers, and Jared Goff, with the Los Angeles Rams, lost the game. Five of the eleven have not even made it to the play-offs. Bradshaw (four) and Aikman (three) are the only such quarterbacks to have won multiple Super Bowls with the teams they drafted. Eli Manning won two with the Giants, Elway won two with the Broncos, and Plunkett won two with the Raiders. Somehow – perhaps because of Tom Brady’s ridiculous seven rings (and counting?) – Super Bowl wins have become one of the defining quarterback statistics. That might be a bit unfair, as even those multiple Super Bowl winners had a lot of help, whether it’s Hall of Fame recipients or running backs, top-10 defenses, or multiple All-Pros and Pro Bowlers.

Bradshaw played with four other Hall of Famers in fouls (center Mike Webster, running Franco Harris and wide receivers Lynn Swann and John Stallworth) in addition to the Steel Curtain defense that included four more Hall of Famers.

• Aikman played with wide receiver Michael Irvin and walked back with Emmitt Smith, both Hall of Famers, and Smith is the NFL’s very best rusher. In addition, the Cowboys finished in the top 10 in scoring defense and total defense in each of the three years they won the Super Bowl.

• Elway had three other Hall of Famers on the offensive: Terrell Davis walk back, tight Shannon Sharpe and offensive tackle Gary Zimmerman. Elway’s two Super Bowl-winning teams also finished 11th or better in defense scoring and total defense.

• Peyton Manning’s defense was in scoring and total defense in the 1920s the year he won the Super Bowl with Indianapolis, but running back Edgerrin James and wide receiver Marvin Harrison made it to the Hall of Fame.

• Eli Manning didn’t have a Hall of Famer next to him on attack, nor did he have a statistically strong defense, but he did get help from two incredible throws and catches in the late game, as well as a pass rush that bothered Tom Brady in both cases . Wins in the Super Bowl.

• Plunkett won his Super Bowls with his third team, the Raiders, after failing to do so with the Patriots (who called him in 1971) and the 49ers. Those Raiders champion teams had a lot of star power. Offensively, they had four Hall of Famers: running back Marcus Allen, offensive tackle Art Shell, tight Dave Casper and security guard Gene Upshaw. And she boasted three more on defense: defensive end Howie Long, corner back Mike Haynes and defensive end Ted Hendricks.

Coaching should also not be overlooked. Here is the list of head coaches of the six quarterbacks who took first overall and won Super Bowls: Chuck Noll (Steelers), Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer (Cowboys), Tom Coughlin (Giants), Mike Shanahan (Broncos), Tony Dungy (Colts)) and Tom Flores (Raiders). Noll, Johnson and Dungy are in the Hall of Fame. Flores will be inaugurated this summer.

Urban Meyer hasn’t coached down in the NFL, but he is one of the best coaches in college football history, winning two national titles in Florida and one in Ohio State, and earning a combined 148-24 with five conference titles at those schools. That could ease some of the pressure on Lawrence.

“Obviously, every time you are first choice, you will feel some of that weight too,” said ESPN college football analyst Kirk Herbstreit. “ But as far as that franchise has to go in a different direction, I think the timing is right for him because you have a high-profile freshman head coach who dissects his every move every week by a lot of people. just like the quarterback.

“As if that was a Doug Marrone, it’s all about Trevor Lawrence, because he [Marrone] has been there for a number of years. “

Jags are on the clock

Where do that leave the Jaguars and Lawrence after 8:30 p.m. ET on April 29?

That’s when the real work begins. Over the next few seasons, the Jaguars will have to build the roster with different players who become Pro Bowlers or All-Pros (and maybe even Hall of Famers). Even if Lawrence turns into the Elway-Manning combo, as Brandt believes, he still needs some help. ESPN’s Mike Clay has the Jags’ roster is being reviewed 31st of the 32 NFL teams participating in the draft.

The Jaguars have four players who each made one Pro Bowl to the roster (defensive end Josh Allen, wide receiver DJ Chark Jr., cornerback Shaquill Griffin and linebacker Joe Schobert), but only Allen and Chark made it to the Jaguars. Returner Jamal Agnew is an All-Pro.

While the game’s best quarterbacks had help, they were key to winning those Super Bowls. That puts enormous pressure and expectations on Lawrence, as he won every quarterback first. But maybe it’s a little more unfair in Jacksonville, as it seems like Lawrence is being counted on to essentially save the franchise. The Jaguars always seem to be considered a relocation risk and owner Shad Khan is constantly on the lookout for new local revenue streams, including an annual London home game from 2013 to ’19. That contract with the league expired after last season – when the Jaguars were scheduled to play two games there, which did not happen due to the pandemic – and the team would like to renew.

Continued success and competing for a championship would certainly bring in more local revenues. Having Lawrence become the league’s next great young QB would be one of the keys to that.

“Any player [taken atop the draft]”It’s like winning three or four Super Bowls to be accountable,” said former Tampa Bay CEO Mark Dominik. When he comes in the late season, he does his job. But Trevor is a rare boy. If you talk to a player at Clemson for the past three years, he has been constantly praised over the years. I think it’s an opportunity for him to move onto a team that is a bit more charged than people realize and has a chance to make an offensive impact. “High hopes are nothing new for Lawrence. He took over as a freshman starter and went on to win two state high school titles in Cartersville, Georgia, become the nation’s No. 1 recruit and follow Deshaun Watson in Clemson.

“I don’t think there’s anything he’ll see in Jacksonville that makes him feel like he hasn’t felt yet and, to be honest, [it] is what he knows, “said Herbstreit.” He’s known that weight to varying degrees since he was in high school. I know that’s probably his greatest strength: how he’ll handle the pressure of flipping a franchise. “

That’s a tough question historically, and some really good quarterbacks either didn’t get it done or failed to achieve lasting success. But there is a belief that Lawrence could become the third quarterback to be drafted first overall since Eli Manning hit a Super Bowl in 2004. “I don’t see any reason he shouldn’t be a good quarterback,” Brandt said. “You don’t win as many championships in high school as a real freshman starter in the state of Georgia, where football is very good, and then you win. [a championship] at Clemson if you have nothing in front of you. “

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