India now consistently records a six-digit addition of cases every day, while daily deaths also hover above 800.
This alarming rise in numbers – much more severe and rapid than during the first wave – has baffled everyone. Especially when it turned out that the country had successfully gotten the situation under control only a few months ago.
But what led to this scary peak? Is it insensitivity of citizens? Are there new and highly contagious variants in the game? Did we open too much too early?
This is what the government and experts believe …
What Center Says
The Center has given three main reasons for the continued increase in numbers: lack of compliance with Covid standards (wearing masks and social distancing), pandemic fatigue and the lack of effective implementation of containment measures at the field level.
While interacting with key ministers, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said how people as well as governments have started to casually fight the coronavirus over a long and fiery fight against the pandemic.
The government has repeatedly said that people are not adhering to Covid-appropriate behavior in public, which could be a major reason for the rise.
This is largely related to pandemic fatigue as people feel demotivated about following recommended behaviors to protect themselves and others from the virus.
Experts weigh in
Experts also believe that a lack of Covid-appropriate behavior could be the main culprit behind the wave.
Virologists Shahid Jameel and T Jacob John agree that failure to follow the Covid-19 protocol, including informing people that they should continue with precautions even after being vaccinated, and slow vaccination urge is responsible for the increase.
Speaking with PTI, Jameel said the interplay of mutants and vaccines will also determine Covid’s future in India and the world in the coming months.
“The intensity of the wave also suggests that there were a large number of sensitive people after the first wave,” the director of the Trivedi School of Biosciences at Ashoka University in Haryana told PTI.
The fact that people dropped the guard and did not follow the Covid protocols after the first wave was over is “certainly a valid explanation” for the wave, Jameel said.
“Anything that opened up to pre-Covid levels and behaviors that were no longer risk averse exposed the susceptible population in a big way. A new factor is emerging mutants – both imported and homegrown,” added the eminent virologist. .
John, a professor of virology at Christian Medical College (CMC) in Tamil Nadu, agreed with Jameel, saying that failure to follow the Covid-19 protocols is partly the cause of the new wave.
“The lowering of the guard was led by the central government and followed by all political parties, all religious groups and the general public. Schools and colleges were opened without vaccinating all staff. This partly explains the second wave,” John told him. PTI.
“Where contagion increased, stricter discipline should have been imposed, but with the coming elections, no leader wanted that. Elections during pandemic had to be carefully planned,” the renowned virologist told PTI.
Dr. Gauri Agarwal, founder director of the Genestrings Diagnostic Center told ANI that violations of Covid standards are now rampant across the country.
“The main reason for the increase in the number of cases is a rampant violation of the Covid protocols. Since the end of last year, we have seen people careless about following protocols and this rise in the number of cases is no surprise.
‘Variants also to blame’
The scientist also agreed that variants are the other reason for the second wave, adding that it was too late for India to look for mutants.
“The two factors came together and we were leaderless in response to the critical moment. The rate of dispersion in the second wave is twice as fast as in the first wave. Partly due to variants and partial lowering of the guard,” explains John. from.
Referring to a Ministry of Health briefing on March 24, Jameel noted that the variants in the UK are now from Punjab in about 80 percent of cases.
“A new double mutant has surfaced in India and is reported in 15-20 percent of cases analyzed from Maharashtra. If this rate increases further, that would be a clear indication of its role in the Maharashtra wave,” said the virologist.
Dr. Aggarwal said a deep understanding of mutations is required.
The other factor (behind the increase) may be the various mutations of the virus, some of which may have been more transmissible than others. However, a more in-depth understanding of the mutant strains and their virulence is needed by performing genome sequencing of more monsters, ”he said.
Variants have been found in India that were first identified in the UK, South Africa and Brazil.
The government has said it is difficult to link the current wave to mutant strains detected in the land. saying that the relationship between the two remains “speculative”.
In late March, the National Center for Disease Control (NCDC) announced that a new variant had been found in saliva samples from people in Maharashtra, Delhi and Punjab.
The genome sequence performed by the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Consortium on Genomics (INSACOG), a consortium of 10 laboratories in India, identified two major mutations in the variant termed “double mutant”.
He explained that the British variant is known to be about 50 percent more contagious and said one of the two mutations in the double mutant was also found in California, USA, where it was associated with increased transmission.
Driving vaccination
The experts also discussed the country’s vaccination urge.
According to John, the government started the drive too late and no outcome target for vaccination had been defined.
“India started the slow rollout of vaccines in the third week of January, but it was a symbolic reward at first for health workers who got vaccinated even when they didn’t need to – and we wasted a lot of vaccines,” he said.
“Was there an order ahead of the vaccine companies to speed up production last year before getting any approvals?” Asked John.
Jameel said there was “poor communication” from officials with people who had been vaccinated about how to proceed with precautions such as masks and social aloofness. Jameel described the Covid-19 situation in India as “curious”, saying the country showed a declining curve of daily infections when vaccinations began in mid-January.
“For a variety of reasons, those eligible, including health care and front-line workers, were reluctant to receive vaccines. Those over 60 also showed insufficient eagerness, although cases started to rise in early March.
“Now we are on a very fast rising curve: only 0.7 percent of Indians have received both doses and only about 5 percent have received one dose. That’s too low to have any effect,” he added.
Dr. Gurpreet Sandhu, chairman of the Council for Healthcare and Pharma, told ANI that vaccine reluctance in India needs to be addressed.
Despite the best efforts of the authorities, the ongoing pandemic has highlighted some of the inequalities in access to health care that continue to plague our country. Meanwhile, the reluctance to use vaccines in different parts of the country needs to be addressed. indicate our efforts to spread the ‘good word’ about vaccines to all corners of the country. This, too, would help to bring about health equality in the country. and negligent behavior is present, ”he said.
However, vaccination coverage in India is slowly increasing as the country relaxed the age limit to 45 years last month.
The Union Ministry of Health said on Saturday that India has become the fastest country to reach the 100 million vaccination mark, reaching the milestone in just 85 days.
But the immunization program still faces several challenges, including dose shortages in several hard-hit states and the issue of vaccine waste.
(With input of PTI, ANI)