While Warriors walk a tricky line between present and future, Stephen Curry’s prime won’t last forever

Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr has repeatedly pointed to the 20-game mark as the first point where he could make an honest assessment of what his team was, and more importantly, what it could be like moving forward. We are at that point. The Warriors, competing in Tuesday’s matchup with the Boston Celtics, are 11-9, good enough for No. 7 in the West and just one game behind the No. 5 spot.

It’s also just two games in the loss column at No. 12 Oklahoma City Thunder.

In all fairness, the Warriors are an average team. They can beat anyone. They can lose to anyone. They pulled a pair of rabbits out of their hats rallying 19 and 22 points to beat the Lakers and Clippers respectively, but seven of their 11 wins came against teams under .500.

Is this a playoff team? Assuming good health, probably. It’s hard to imagine a team with Stephen Curry not at least making the extended play-in round. Aside from that, the Warriors are nowhere near a contender. Under normal circumstances, with a player like Curry entering the back of his prime with just one year left on his contract after this season, the urgency to upgrade the squad would be in full swing.

But in this case, Golden State has an ace in store, and that ace is Klay Thompson. If you want to take the Warriors ‘most optimistic stance for the next nine months, they’ll spend the rest of this season developing rookie James Wiseman, cracking the playoffs, setting up a stud with the Timberwolves’ first round for 2021 and then become contenders again. when Thompson returns next year.

Call me a pessimist, but I don’t see all of that happening. For starters, the Minnesota pick is protected in the top three and currently the Wolves are in the statistical line for a top three pick. In that case, the choice would go unprotected in 2022. In other words, unless the Warriors trade that pick, chances are it won’t say anything for their 2021-22 roster.

More importantly, the idea of ​​Thompson just coming back and firing on all cylinders feels like reach. By the time the next season kicks off, Thompson hasn’t played in an NBA game for nearly 30 months. He will turn 31 in a week, which means he will turn 32 in a few months next season, and as we know, he will come out of a torn ACL and a torn Achilles.

If the Warriors aren’t making big moves, a Thompson of 90 percent probably isn’t enough. It’s not even certain that a 100 percent Thompson puts the Warriors in the ranks of legitimate contenders. Seeing how great Kevin Durant and John Wall look so far, given that they are both from Achilles Tears, gives the Warriors hope that Thompson can return to his old selves. However, that is deceptive in the fact that Durant was 18 months from the day he tore his Achilles, and Wall was 21 months. Thompson will try to come back close to 12 months after the Achilles tear.

“That extra time to rehabilitate and get strong again can make a big difference,” said Dr. Alan Beyer, an orthopedic surgeon and the executive medical director of the Hoag Orthopedic Institute in Southern California, at CBS Sports. “You just don’t know how one guy will come back as opposed to another. Those are two major injuries, and these things are cumulative. … I say this: if you depend on a player, Klay Thompson or otherwise,” To come back after an ACL tear and a full Achilles fracture and be the same player as before those injuries is a gamble. It’s a really big gamble. ”

All of this is not to say that Thompson cannot be expected to return as a really good player. Whether that’s 85 percent of his old self or whatever, he’ll be fine. You wonder what the defense is, but he’ll be a great shooter at the very least, and by the time the 2022 playoffs arrive, Thompson will have nearly had the 18 months that Durant post-Achilles tear had.

But that assumes that Thompson will not suffer any other injuries, even minor ones, that hinder his progress as he tries to regain previous rhythms. As Dr. Beyer said, these things are cumulative. Wiseman looks like he has a lot of potential, but will he be willing to contribute at the championship level in his second season? Will whoever the Warriors select with Minnesota pick, must even convey that pick, be willing to contribute as a rookie?

It is much unknown when, in fact, the Warriors would need everything to go almost exactly to plan to return to battle at short notice. And if next year doesn’t go as planned, Curry will now turn 33 and enter the final year of his contract.

No one thinks he’s leaving, but when he looks up and sees a team that has prioritized the future at the expense of maximizing its rapidly declining prime, can we be sure? The Warriors could get him for that, and will likely sign him to a massive extension, but then you’re paying an aging Curry max cash to a team that realistically can’t compete for titles. You essentially became the Trail Blazers with Damian Lillard.

All of this indicates that the Warriors are making strong moves to insure combat, at least to the extent of their control, without putting all their eggs in the Klay comeback basket. Rumors have it that the Warriors are interested in Lonzo Ball. In theory, Ball would suit Curry and Thompson pretty well next season as a guy with the high IQ, ball movement DNA Kerr fantasies type. Ball has always needed shooters and scorers around him to thrive, and his up-tempo instincts and defensive versatility scream Warriors basketball.

Still, that movement, or equivalent, isn’t one that changes Golden State’s temperature significantly. Jonathan Tjarks of The Ringer recently suggested that the Warriors are thinking a lot of bigger by throwing a Godfather offer at the Wizards for Bradley Beal. It would certainly take the Warriors Wiseman and the Minnesota pick, plus in all likelihood more future picks, but the thinking is that Curry is a once-in-a-generation player, and if you have that kind of player, you do. not. Let your scheduling mind advance too far.

Rather, you’re doing what the Heat, Cavaliers and Lakers did when they got their hands on prime LeBron James. You give that kind of superstar the pieces it needs to compete because you know that having that kind of superstar is the rarest NBA luxury that can’t be wasted under any circumstances or in any capacity.

What complicates things is again that Wiseman and the Minnesota pick are Golden State’s only remaining major assets. Once the Warriors deal with that, they are pretty much all in for the foreseeable future with whatever they get in return. You could look at the Warriors trading Wiseman and a potential top five pick like the Lakers trading Brandon Ingram and a top five pick, but the difference is that the Lakers package got them Anthony Davis.

Beal, if the wizards even made him available, Davis isn’t. But Beal is a player great enough to give Curry the chance to compete at least this season, and next season, with Beal, Thompson, Curry and Draymond Green, you’d be talking about a top contender.

For the record, Beal apparently continues to claim behind closed doors that he is committed to Washington, per The Athletic. But this is not about what Beal wants (how much you think Beal would actually fight a trade); this is about what’s best for the Wizards. I am with Tjarks. I think a Warriors offer targeting Wiseman and the 2021 Minnesota pick would potentially call Washington’s bluff “we don’t trade Beal,” and if it did, and Washington admitted, I’d jump on the deal if I the Warriors.

I understand the counter-argument to using Wiseman and the Minnesota pick to usher in the next era of Warriors basketball, as the Spurs could do with Kawhi Leonard without ever having to drop out of the playoffs, but in the spirit of Bradley Beal Not Because you’re Anthony Davis, you’re really trying to put James Wiseman in the Kawhi Leonard conversation.

Chances are, by the time Wiseman and the one who’s from the Minnesota are ready to lead a contender, Curry, Thompson and Green won’t be. For me, that’s too much of a risk to take if you have Stephen Curry on your team. Trading for Lonzo might be a good start, but if the Warriors really want to do well with Curry – whether it’s trying to compete in the seemingly inevitable Beal sweepstakes or getting creative via a different route – they’ll have to think then that.