When does the UK hit herd immunity? It could soon be for Britain that Covid is fighting

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The UK’s increased immunity to Covid-19 offers opportunities to move forward with the worst pandemic, with some scientists saying the country could cross a major threshold as early as Monday.

According to researchers from University College London, then so-called herd immunity could be achieved in the UK. Nearly three-quarters of the population will have antibodies to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection, they estimate.

Britain has already seen a plunge into new cases and deaths, and the government will ease restrictions on Monday, including for outdoor dining. Those developments have sparked hopes that the nation will soon shake off its Covid shackles.

Many other scientists think the UK is much further from herd immunity than UCL’s model suggests. It has been criticized by some who say it overestimates the potency of vaccines and does not sufficiently take into account declining immunity and new virus variants. No more than 40% of the country has protection against Covid, according to estimates Imperial College London.

“There is a lot of confusion about the duration of immunity, both vaccine immunity and natural immunity,” said Anne Cori, a teacher at Imperial. “If the immunity wears off, you can lose the herd’s immunity after you reach it.”

Still, the progress marks a milestone for the European country worst hit by the pandemic, with more than 127,000 fatalities, and for Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has been criticized for a slow response to the crisis.

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Daily cases in the UK are the lowest since September, pending the easing of the lockdown

Source: Bloomberg, Seven-Day Moving Average of New Cases

At first, his government’s chief science advisor took a backlash after talking about the UK’s apparent ambition to “ build up some degree of herd immunity ” – exposing some of the population to the virus – but he has since maintained that this was the case. never official policy and claims he was misinterpreted.

Virologists describe herd immunity as the point at which a virus struggles to enter a society due to high levels of immunity, either through vaccination or previous exposure to the pathogen. If elusive to the UK, it is still a distant dream for most of the world. Experts agree that speeding up vaccinations is the surest way to get the virus under control, and Britain is ahead of most other countries in that regard.

According to Bloomberg, nearly half of Britons have received at least one dose of vaccine, compared to just 14% in the European Union. Vaccine Tracker. But after it’s become the epicenter of another Covid wave, there are tentative signs that Western Europe is turning the corner.

Thursday France goal of giving 10 million people a first shot, one week ahead of schedule Germany vaccinated 720,000 people that day, a record for the nation, and plans to inoculate the population completely by mid-summer. As supplies increase, Europe’s largest economy could administer 3.5 million doses per week, Health Minister Jens Spahn said.

Europe is finding some rare successes in its fight to defeat Covid

Still, European countries are likely to lag Britain in fully vaccinating 75% of their population, according to an analysis by Airfinity Ltd., a London-based research firm. While the UK will reach that level in early August, Germany won’t get there until September and France until October, the company’s current estimates show.

Race to 75%

France and Germany can achieve high immunity months after the UK and the US

Source: Airfinity