Which COVID-19 Vaccine Is Best? The correct answer is that it depends on which factor is most important to you.
Comirnaty (BNT162b2), the vaccine developed by BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX) and his great partner Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), had the highest overall efficacy in late-stage testing. But Modern‘s (NASDAQ: MRNA) efficacy for mRNA-1273 was almost as high. The biotech also developed a formula that does not meet the strict ultra-cold storage requirements that Comirnaty does.
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) just reported an ok but not too impressive efficacy result for his vaccine. However, it only requires a single dose – a big plus. Then there is Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX). The biotech announced major efficacy and safety results for its COVID-19 vaccine last week. The downside is that the results come from a UK study. It will be a few more months before the results of Novavax from a study in the US and Mexico are available.
The same “it depends” answer also applies to the question of which of these is the best stock of COVID vaccines. This is how I think Pfizer, BioNTech, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, and Novavax qualify for different types of investors.
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For income investors
Let’s start with a relatively simple equation. Income investors want dividends. We can immediately rule out BioNTech, Moderna and Novavax as they currently have no dividend programs. That leaves only Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer.
If your primary focus is on revenue, Pfizer is the better choice. The dividend currently yields more than 4.3%, compared to 2.4% for J&J. While Pfizer’s dividend will be slightly lower in the future as it splits from its Upjohn unit, returns should still be well above Johnson & Johnson’s.
On the other hand, if you give higher priority to dividend track records, J&J is the obvious choice. The healthcare giant is a Dividend King with a whopping 58 consecutive years of dividend increases.
For value investors
Selecting the best stock of COVID vaccines for value investors is also not a difficult decision. Value investors typically focus on metrics based on income or sales. That’s right BioNTech, Moderna and Novavax off the list.
Based on one of the most used valuation metrics, Pfizer appears to be the winner over Johnson & Johnson. Pfizer shares, for example, trade at less than 11.5 times expected earnings. J&J shares are trading at nearly 19 times expected earnings.
For growth investors
Now for the hardest choice: choosing the best of these stocks for growth investors. The roles are reversed this time. Neither Pfizer nor Johnson & Johnson has revenue and profit growth potential as great as the smaller biotech stocks.
We can also rule out BioNTech. It has to split all sales for Comirnaty with Pfizer. The company also has no other pipeline candidates in late-stage testing that could hit the market in the near future.
So which growth stocks win in a head-to-head match between Moderna and Novavax? I’m going with Novavax. Perhaps most importantly, Novavax’s market capitalization is a lot smaller than Moderna’s. That should give Novavax more leeway if its COVID-19 vaccine wins emergency use authorizations (which I’m sure it will).
This ties in with another reason why Novavax is the better choice for growth investors. The biotech still has several key catalysts on the road for its NVX-CoV2373 coronavirus vaccine, including possible UK authorization, late-stage results from its US / Mexico study, and possible US emergency use authorization.
Novavax also has another promising candidate who has a high chance of getting approvals: the flu vaccine NanoFlu. If approved, NanoFlu could become a blockbuster in its own right. As an added bonus, Novavax is exploring the potential of developing a combo COVID / flu vaccine with NVX-CoV2373 and NanoFlu.
Multiple winners
My view is that Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson are great choices for more conservative investors, especially retirees and others who want income from dividends. I think Novavax is the best choice for more aggressive investors looking for strong growth.
The good news, however, is that all of these stocks can be winners in the long run. Moderna offers an enticing platform based on its messenger RNA (mRNA) technology. BioNTech also has promising mRNA vaccines and therapies in development, plus candidates using other approaches. I suspect that investors who bought one of these stocks will not regret in 10 years.