Gal Gadot stars as Wonder Woman in “Wonder Woman 1984”.
Warner Bros.
Can a superhero movie full of nostalgia convince people to leave their couch and go to the cinemas? Wonder Woman 1984 tries to answer that question.
Movie owners are hopeful that the sequel to “Wonder Woman,” arriving on Christmas Day, will lure a major audience back to theaters, despite persistent spikes in coronavirus cases.
But the ongoing pandemic isn’t their only concern. The same day that “Wonder Woman 1984” debuts on the big screen, it will also be available to stream on HBO Max.
“‘Wonder Woman 1984’ is the first test of a large screen / small screen simultaneous release of a title of this magnitude,” said Paul Dergarabedian, Senior Media Analyst at Comscore.
Box office analysts have mixed opinions on how well the movie will perform in the domestic box office. Wonder Woman 1984 underperformed on its international debut last weekend, bringing in about $ 38.5 million. This was well below the $ 60 million the industry had predicted.
The movie could face even more trouble in the US and Canada as only about 34% of theaters are open. That’s about 2,000 theaters, Comscore reports.
“It’s hard to put a figure on the possible opening weekend, as there really isn’t a directly comparable release scenario,” Dergarabedian said. And the biggest opening weekend since the start of the mid-March pandemic for movie theaters didn’t even eclipse the $ 10 million mark.
He’s referring to “The Croods: A New Age,” an animated Dreamworks movie that debuted during Thanksgiving. It had the highest opening of all movies released during the pandemic, a paltry $ 9.7 million. For the entire five-day Thanksgiving weekend, it was $ 14.2 million.
Yet there is pent-up demand for “Wonder Woman 1984.” This could convince moviegoers to go to the big screen instead of watching the movie at home.
“We see that ‘Wonder Woman 1984’ has delivered the strongest ticket presale of all pandemic-era movies to date, but I’m cautiously leaning towards more than $ 10 million for the weekend given the number of theater closings, audience caution and a simultaneous streaming release, “said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice.com.” A figure closer to $ 15 million could be achievable, but there is a lot of unpredictability at this point. “
Robbins said premium displays such as IMAX and Dolby Cinema will likely be some of the best performing venues for the sequel as they provide higher quality sound and picture. Private party rentals, where moviegoers rent out a theater to a group of as many as 20 friends and family members, is also likely to generate a healthy share of the box office.
Over the past five years, the Christmas Day box office has generated at least $ 80 million for that one day. That figure will not be visible this year, analysts agree.
In non-pandemic times, “Wonder Woman 1984” could have opened between $ 100 million and $ 150 million, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter said. With so many theaters closed, the threat of the coronavirus lurking, and the film’s availability on HBO Max, Pachter predicted an opening between $ 15 million and $ 25 million.
While many will choose to stay home and watch the movie this vacation, fans and families in markets where it is safe and able to do so may turn out to be in relatively reasonable numbers, although they are far from what they normally would its for a blockbuster superhero. sequel to Christmas, “said Robbins.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal owns Dreamworks Animation.