What the death of a blind reveals

The injury-ridden life, and now death, of Asmelash Woldeselassie highlights the cruelty and cyclical nature of conflicts in Ethiopia’s mountainous Tigray region.

After joining the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) around the time of its founding in 1975, Asmelash lost his sight when he was bombed in his hideout on Mount Imba Alaje during the war that ended with the guerrilla movement heading to Addis , the capital of Ethiopia, marched. Abeba, to seize power from the infamous Mengistu Haile Mariam regime in 1991.

In 1998, when the TPLF-led government was at the center of a border war with Eritrea, Asmelash lost his left arm in an air raid on the regional capital, Mekelle.

In the latest conflict where the TPLF returned to a guerrilla movement, Asmelash – who was a member of the executive branch – was murdered along with two other TPLF veterans – former Secretary of State Seyoum Mesfin and former Secretary of Federal Affairs Abay Tsehaye.

Ethiopia’s 44-year-old Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who ordered the military operation that ultimately led to their deaths, was a young member of the TPLF-led coalition government until he took power in 2018.

Now he and the TPLF are enemies vying for control of Tigray, a strategically important region bordering Sudan and Eritrea, the gateway to the Red Sea shipping lanes.

Eritrea’s president, Isaias Afwerki, has reportedly sent troops to Tigray to reinforce the Ethiopian army’s operation and, some say, avenge its humiliation by the TPLF during the 1998-2000 border war that killed up to 100,000 people. came.

Both governments deny that Eritrean troops are in Tigray, despite many Tigrayans, Eritreans and the US government saying they are there.

Mr. Abiy declared the victory over the TPLF after the capture of the regional capital, Mekelle, on November 28, but promised to continue the efforts to hold on to the TPLF’s “cabal”, which had an estimated 250,000 fighters under his command. .

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Fascinated and confused

How Asmelah, Seyoum, and Abay – all over the age of 60 – died is unclear: Some claim they were shot in cold blood, but the official Ethiopian version is that they were killed in a cave area after they refused to surrender.

Their deaths came in addition to the arrest of several other TPLF stalwarts – including Sebhat Nega, who was paraded in handcuffs in front of the cameras and looked confused, in a scene reminiscent of the capture of former Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein in 2003 .

Faisal Roble of the US-based Institute for Horn of Africa Studies and Affairs said supporters of Mr. Abiy celebrate the fate of the men who belonged to an organization that ruled Ethiopia with an iron fist until massive protests forced it to take power. stand on Mr. Abiy almost three years ago.

“They say,” We have the TPLF. We destroy it. They will never be able to oppress us again. “

But Tigrayans – including those who never liked the TPLF – say, ‘You killed Asmelash, a blind man, Seyoum, who had back surgery and had trouble walking, Abay, who had heart surgery, and you have Sebath humiliated, who can ‘I’m not going up two flights of stairs. These are our heroes. ”

Exiled Eritrean human rights activist Paulos Tesfagiorgis said there was no doubt that the TPLF suffered major setbacks nearly three months after the conflict after being hit by drone strikes and the massive deployment of Ethiopian and Eritrean troops, as well as forces from the Amhara. region in Ethiopia. , which has its own land dispute with Tigray under the country’s federal system.

“The TPLF has lost a lot of ground, a lot of leaders, a lot of hunters and a lot of heavy weapons. It only has medium and light weapons now. I don’t think it expected Eritrea to get involved to that extent.

“Isaias has followed its old strategy of overwhelming the enemy with troops, tanks, armaments and bombing,” said Mr. Paulos, adding, “But the TPLF is not ready yet. It fought intense battles. Now it has returned to familiar territory. , the rural areas of Tigray, its mountains and hills, to wage guerrilla warfare. “

Menychle Meseret, an academic at the Ethiopian University of Gondar, said the TPLF’s move into guerrilla warfare, after waging a ‘large-scale’ conflict against the Ethiopian military, poses its own dangers.

In insurgent groups, even one suicide bomber can cause many deaths. In the case of the TPLF, there are still a few fighters left. There have been reports of fighting in some mountainous areas, and that the TPLF has already ambushed roads. auxiliary convoy. “

Famine warnings

Mr Paulos said he believed the government was using hunger as a weapon of war.

“Government soldiers burned the crops of Tigrayans; the offensive happened during the harvest season and slaughtered their livestock. This happened while the government imposed a total blockade on Tigray. No food came in. Even now the flow of aid is severely limited.

“People are already starving. There are warnings of a famine. This is a war without compassion. It reminds me of Mengistu’s quote:” To kill the fish, to empty the pond. ” To weaken the TPLF, Abiy’s government must restrain civilians, including by exposing them to hunger, ”said Paulos.

Aid agencies have reported that the conflict – which took place amid the coronavirus pandemic and a locust plague of crops – had created a “dire” situation:

• More than two million people need help

• Mass displacements have heightened fears of a “massive” transmission of Covid-19

• Only five of the 40 hospitals are accessible

• About 300 motorized water sources are dysfunctional

• Local markets are on the verge of collapse

An official in the newly appointed government in Tigray was quoted by local media as saying that the crisis in the region was “unprecedented in its history.” He estimated the number in need of emergency food aid at 4.5 million (up to 75% of the population), the number of displaced at 2.5 million, and said his office had received reports of 13 people – including three children – who were starving. had perished.

The government has denied using hunger as a weapon of war, and Mr. Menychle said such allegations were “utterly wrong.”

“The government has plenty of food supplies, but it cannot deliver them to rural areas because the TPLF is killing drivers. The TPLF wants to orchestrate famine as a weapon to manipulate global opinion and gain sympathy for the cause.”

“The TPLF gave weapons to farmers and forced some of them to fight. That is why crops were destroyed. The TPLF also controlled the government administration of all cities. It destroyed offices – even hospitals – before leaving cities,” Mr. Menychle said.

The state-affiliated human rights commission said residents of the agricultural center of Humera in western Tigray had reported widespread looting of homes and businesses by an Amhara ethnic youth group, militias, special forces, as well as some Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers.

“Looters have also cleared food and grain stores,” he said, adding that one resident had complained that even people sent by the newly appointed administration to assist them “were participating in theft.”

More about the Tigray crisis:

Ethiopian analyst William Davison of the International Crisis Group said the federal government provided some assistance in areas where its troops, or security forces from Amhara, were firmly in control.

But this did not happen in areas where Tigray’s forces were still a major threat, as the government would not want them to obtain relief supplies or find ways to smuggle fuel or weapons.

“Large parts of rural Tigray have not received any assistance because of insufficient federal control or too much insecurity.

“Aid is going to Mekelle, the regional capital, and some parts of the south or west, as the federal or Amhara forces are in control of these places,” he said.

‘Eritrean troops in holy city’

Mr Davison added that obtaining aid in areas controlled by Eritrean forces is also logistically and politically difficult as neither the Ethiopian nor the Eritrean leadership recognizes that the latter’s forces have been part of the Tigray conflict.

Local people told the BBC that Eritrean troops were in important towns and cities, including Aksum, the most sacred site for Ethiopian Orthodox Christians, and Wukro, only about 28 miles from Mekelle.

They had withdrawn from Shire, the hometown of Tigray’s deposed President Debretsion Gebremichael, after helping Ethiopian forces take power, but they were still strong in surrounding villages, residents said.

Sudan’s key role

Martin Plaut – a senior research fellow at London University’s Institute of Commonwealth Studies – said that control of the territory was no indication of who won.

“The TPLF doesn’t believe in keeping cities and towns. It fights from the hills and mountains. It allows the enemy to settle down.

It then carries out hit-and-run attacks. It carries the enemy out for months and years. This is what it did in the previous guerrilla war. Whether it can fight an effective guerrilla war again depends on whether it can supply routes. for ammunition, fuel and food, ”said Mr Plaut.

The last time the TPLF got its supplies from Sudan. Whether Sudan agrees to do this again – amid a border dispute with Ethiopia that has led to clashes between their forces – was the big question, Mr Plaut said.

“It is likely to determine whether this is a long or a short war.”