For most of tennis’s existence, winning even one Grand Slam tournament was career affirmation.
From 1990 to ’98, 16 different players won a major, six for the first and only time. If there was a big story involved, it probably had to do with reaching # 1 in the ATP rankings.
A lone Slam victory saw Thomas Muster rise to first place in early 1996, as did Carlos Moya in 1999. Yevgeny Kafelnikov and Patrick Rafter also made it to the top in 1999, as Lleyton Hewitt, Gustavo Kuerten and Marat Safin would do . in the years that followed. At the end of 2003, it was Andy Roddick’s turn to both win a Slam (the US Open) and reach number 1.
However, since 2004, only four men are number 1: Roger Federer (310 weeks), Novak Djokovic (308), Rafael Nadal (209) and Andy Murray (41). The first three on that list have also won 57 of the last 69 Slams, and the only story that mattered in the past decade was, who ends with the most Slam titles? Nadal leveled Federer at 20 with his French Open victory in late 2020, and Djokovic, at 17, has been faltering in both of them for a while.
That makes each loss remarkable, especially since all three are in the advanced stages of their respective careers (Federer is 39 years old, Nadal 34, Djokovic 33). When Djokovic was expelled from the US Open last fall for accidentally hitting a linesman with a ball, it was a huge missed opportunity to get one title from Nadal and two from Federer; Nadal snapped another one when he swept Djokovic in Paris.
Nadal missed his own chance in the quarter-finals of the Australian Open on Wednesday when he only blew his second two-set lead on a Slam and lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas 3-6, 2-6, 7-6, 6-4, 7- 5.
This was a huge moment for 22-year-old Tsitsipas, who has now overcome two sets of drawbacks in consecutive Slams and reached his third major semi-final second in a row. It was only his second win over a top 10 player in a Slam. But sticking to the biggest story of tennis, we have to ask ourselves what this also does to the career Slams race.
Hard court titles are bonus points for Nadal
Nadal is the greatest lawn player of all time; there is no doubt about that. And he is great general because his prowess isn’t limited to clay courts – he’s won five hard court Slams and two Wimbledons.
However, his 13 French Open titles are clearly key to his position in the grand title race; he has won only two Slams outside Paris in the past seven years (the US Opens 2017 and 2019). If he ends up on top of hope, it will be because of Roland Garros, and as he proved last fall, his dominance in Paris is far from over. He’s won four consecutive French Opens and didn’t drop a set on his way to last year’s championship.
Clearly, Nadal would have benefited greatly from a title in Melbourne, and a two-set lead is never anything but costly. But this is not his event.
The Australian Open means much more to Djokovic than that of Nadal
Perhaps the biggest plot twist in Djokovic’s pursuit took place when he became the best grass baker in the world; despite the general assumptions we could make about a player who defends so well and has a great offensive play, but not elite – that he should be better suited to hard or clay courts than grass – he has four of the last six Wimbledons, opponents deep fix, serve better and better and force big mistakes. He will be the London favorite when the tournament resumes this summer.
Still, Melbourne is to Djokovic what Paris is to Nadal. He has won eight Australian Open titles, including seven of the last 10. If we put the final over / under for Slam titles at 22 or 23, that means he needs five or six more. Given that nearly half of his 17 titles were in Australia, you think there are at least two future titles, maybe three, to come as well.
Djokovic reached the semi-finals with a quarter-final of four sets over Alexander Zverev, but his form was not top notch these two weeks. He dropped a set on Frances Tiafoe in the second round, before sustaining a mysterious injury against Taylor Fritz in the third round. He survived that match in five sets before beating Milos Raonic and Zverev in four each, but while these results would be incredible for just about any living player, it’s clear that Djokovic isn’t at full strength.
Despite the injury, William Hill’s Caesars lists Djokovic’s bets at -1450 (equal to 94% chance of winning) against the qualifier and Aslan Karatsev in the semi-final. But even if we assume he’s making progress – although we know the odds have not in any way applied to Karatsev’s run so far – he will still have to face Tsitsipas or Daniil Medvedev in the final.
Medvedev is a three-time Slam semi-finalist on hard court and nearly beat Nadal in the 2019 US Open final; According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, he is the number 2 hard court player in the world. Even if an injured Djokovic is better than almost everyone on this surface, is he still better than Medvedev?
This is a huge moment for the next generation of tennis
Like “Who Will Finish With The Most Slams?” was the biggest question in men’s tennis over the past decade, but “When will the younger generation catch up with the Big Three?” is the second largest. We’ve been asking for a while.
The Raonic-Kei Nishikori-Grigor Dimitrov generation was delayed by injuries and missed opportunities, and there is an interesting dichotomy in the current ATP top 12: there are four players aged 33 or older, six aged 25 or younger, and only two in between (Dominic Thiem and Diego Schwartzman).
The group of 25 and under has shown enormous potential; we’re just waiting for a breakthrough. The current top three in this group – Medvedev, Tsitsipas and Zverev – have combined to beat Djokovic seven times, Federer six times and Nadal five times, but before Tsitsipas’ quarter-final win over Nadal, they were only 1-7 against the Big Three in Slams . Now they are 2-7.
We often overestimate the effects of intangible and immeasurable things in sports (most of the most important things are indeed measurable), but it is clear how much of a role trust and pure belief can play in a one-on-one sport like tennis. Tsitsipas not only came back to beat Nadal in five sets, he also made Nadal look so old. Nadal was clearly the more tired player late in the game.
The images generated by this victory could cause a domino effect. Combining the win with a Medvedev or Tsitsipas title could reshape not only how we look at the 2021 tour, but also how we look at the career titles race. Suddenly, the Big Three could generally see less great opportunities, and that over / under 22 or 23 titles might turn into 21.
Or, maybe Djokovic will dominate Tsitsipas / Medvedev in the final, and this will be another false start for the next generation. Regardless, Tsitsipas’ comeback makes the last three matches of the Australian Open for men even more intriguing than they already were.