Credit: New Jersey National Guard via Flickr
What will happen next in the COVID-19 pandemic remains a wait and see situation, but Dr. Michael Osterholm, infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota, believes the new strain has led to another round of strict lockdowns in the UK a harbinger of things to come in America.
“What we’re seeing in England now, I think it will be a harbinger of things to come,” said Osterholm, noting on his weekly podcast that the virus has spread to at least 33 countries, including the US. “Where it goes, I think this will spread around the world and we can expect what is happening in England to happen in many other locations.”
There are two confirmed new variants of the coronavirus, and neither has been confirmed in Minnesota, although government Tim Walz said on Wednesday that “it’s probably here.”
“We are looking for this variant, we have the opportunity to do it in our public health lab,” said Jan Malcolm, commissioner of the Minnesota Department of Health. “We constantly screen for it.”
The one found in the UK and other parts of the world including some US states is known as B117. Another variant initially discovered in South Africa is known as B1351. Critically, the Centers for Disease Control have not found any evidence so far to suggest that COVID-19 vaccines won’t work against the mutations.
And according to Reuters, Pfizer has been running trials to see if its vaccine works against the mutations, and announced Thursday night that its vaccine appears to be effective against these two strains of virus, although its study has not yet been peer-reviewed.
Osterholm recorded his last podcast prior to this announcement, but it would be welcome news as the mutation in South Africa particularly concerned him, after possibilities had arisen that it might be capable of using the vaccines made so far. to bypass.
The CDC says the virus that mutates to make the vaccines less effective would be the worst-case scenario, but there is no evidence that this is happening, and most experts believe that escape mutants are unlikely to appear due to the nature of the virus.”
Vaccine manufacturers have said they can modify vaccines to address mutations, although it could take at least six weeks to do so.
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Nevertheless, mutations of the coronavirus are believed to be more contagious, while the vaccination process in the US is only just getting underway.
In Britain, hospital admissions have skyrocketed, raising concerns that more cases in America could lead to more hospitalizations and deaths at a time when the country is already breaking records on a daily basis.
“ Early indicators show that this variant, while not more deadly in terms of death rate, appears to be about 50-70% more contagious, meaning less of it is needed, it is much faster and spreads very quickly, ” Walz said Wednesday.
Osterholm expects more variants to emerge over time, saying he “wouldn’t be surprised if we found an American variant tomorrow”.
“We just have to pray at this point that vaccination-induced immunity, and to that extent previous immunity to disease, will provide protection against these specific strains,” said Osterholm.