The latest developments
There are two major updates to our winter storm forecast from Sunday morning:
1.) Rainfall is slower in southern New Jersey than expected.
2.) Temperatures are even warmer than expected in the southern half of the state, with a rainier start for most.
After analyzing the current situation and the latest model guidelines, I think these developments will affect the storm timeline, but not the final snow totals. My last snow accumulation map is exactly the same like the one I posted on Saturday afternoon, except for the addition of the blue-green outline to indicate more specific rainfall types.
Timeline
Precipitation spreads from south to north early Sunday morning, between approx 5 am and 9 pm For the southern half of the state – roughly south of Mercer and Monmouth counties – you’re likely to see rain or a muddy mix kick in. For northern New Jersey, I expect snow for the duration.
The burden of the storm is pushed back slightly. It really starts to go downhill 9 or 10 am That’s when localized heavy snow tires reduce visibility and cause the fastest build-ups. (Snowfall can reach an inch or two per hour.) Even coastal areas can turn into moderately heavy snow in the early afternoon hours. The toughest things should disappear around 2pm
As the storm system recedes we will see light to moderate snow ending from west to east between approx 2 pm and 5 pm
Totals
The same card as last time. Although the mix potential is a good reason to lean more towards the bottom of my forecast ranges than the top.
The storm’s sweet spot, roughly along the Turnpike corridor through inland, southern, and central NJ, should look roughly 4 to 6+ inches of snow. The “plus” is important – while I don’t think we’ll get widespread 8 or 10 inches of snowfall, such over-performance is possible depending on tire structure. (The NAM model was very optimistic about that possibility even Sunday morning, so let’s not ignore the possibility of a major snow event just yet.)
In the north you are likely to fall from the bands of “pouring snow”. Still, 2 to 4 inches is enough to create. And it will especially impact with more than 12 inches of snow still on the ground from last Monday’s snow bomb.
I keep one along the south coast 0 to 2 inch snow forecast. I think this is where the greatest uncertainty lies in this prediction. Models painted quite a snowy scene along the Jersey Shore until Sunday afternoon. So there is a chance of more than 2 centimeters here. On the other hand, temperatures are quite warm (43 degrees in Atlantic City and Cape May, at the time of writing). So I think it is reasonable to keep both no and some on the table.
Effects
Whatever falls from the sky, it will get quite unpleasant and messy in the middle of the day. This goes a little further than “conversation snow”. Travel will become very difficult during the peak of the storm, from mid-morning to early afternoon.
Even for those on the way to The big game, roads can be in bad shape on Sunday evening. Hopefully, during peak Monday morning, the crews will largely have a grip on clearing snow. I could see some schools and businesses delaying their opening on Monday (or going virtual) while the plowing continued.
Meanwhile, it is expected that wind during the storm will not be a problem. You may encounter some gusts of wind over 20 mph. That keeps the risk of power outages and near blizzards low.
And due to the light wind, storm surge and coastal flooding are also no problem. With just a few inches of water rise, no tide gauge along the Jersey Shore comes close to the inundation stage.
The comprehensive prediction
Arctic air returns to the Garden State on Sunday evening, accompanied by a gusty northwest wind. Nighttime low temperatures will plunge into the teens, with chills in the single digits. Brrr!
A series of storm systems will get us additional shots of wintry weather this week. Although we are honest, we do not yet have a good understanding of precipitation types and possible accumulations. The first impulse would be Tuesday, and could be mostly rain. Another complex storm in the Thursday-Friday timeframe could have more of an impact, with solid snow accumulation on the table.
We will address that later. One storm at a time, please.
Coverage plan
I’ll be on your radio Sunday, on the Townsquare New Jersey Weather Network, until our nor’easter starts to calm down. I will receive regular updates throughout the day on the web, in the app and on social media.
Our news team is also on hand to communicate any issues with power outages, traffic and transit, closures and cancellations, etc.
Be smart, stay safe and stay warm. And enjoy the snow!
Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist at Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest weather forecast and real-time weather updates.