In the first statewide race since the GOP lost the White House and Senate, Virginia’s race for governor suggests that at this point, former President Trump’s influence is still strong among state republicans.
The declared candidates have so far largely embraced Mr. Trump’s rhetoric and policies with a view to winning the state’s GOP convention in May, even though this makes it more difficult to engage moderate voters in the general election in November. Republicans have not won statewide elections in Virginia for over a decade since 2009.
Hedge fund investor Glenn Youngkin and entrepreneur Pete Snyder, who ran for lieutenant governor in 2013, lead the GOP field in campaign ad spend. Former Republican House Speaker Kirk Cox and Senator Amanda Chase are the only candidates with experience in the Virginia government.
Deciding how their candidate would be elected was already a headache for the candidates and the Virginia Republican State Central Committee.
After months of internal debate over holding a statewide versus a convention, a failed lawsuit by Chase, and a failed plan to hold it at Liberty University, the committee decided to hold an unassembled convention in March at 37 locations. It takes place on May 8, uses ranked votes and requires a candidate to win a majority of the votes to be the nominee.
All GOP candidates take advantage of fatigue around the way Democrats are dealing with COVID-19 and the economy, and specifically point to the state’s slowness in fully reopening schools.
Democratic Governor Ralph Northam has called on all schools to begin some form of personal learning by Monday, although Republicans argue that five days of personal learning should already take place.
“These elections will all be about democratic control and reach by one party,” Cox told CBS News, adding that even after schools open, closures will remain an issue in the fall, as students have so much to catch up.
Republicans will also target Democrats because of the lagging vaccination coverage. The state struggled to distribute vaccines early on, but it has improved its systems; it ranked fourth in the percentage of vaccines administered in mid-March.
While Mr. Trump’s pet issues, such as immigration and the US approach to China, have been addressed by some campaigns, candidates have also seized Mr. Trump’s debunked idea of an election “stolen” from him.
President Biden won Virginia, which has voted Democratic in presidential races since 2008, by more than 450,000 votes. Northam cannot run for re-election because the state prohibits consecutive terms by governors.
Youngkin tries to build on questions the outcome of the 2020 elections with its “Election Integrity Taskforce”, which, in part, calls for more observers and audits of voting machines. Snyder has released a similar policy plan, saying he wants “NFL-style scouting reports” on election officials ahead of the November election.
“President Biden is our president. He was inaugurated,” Youngkin said when asked if he trusts the 2020 election results. “I really think process improvements will remove doubts.”
Chase, who proudly wears her nickname ‘Trump in Heels’ and attended the ‘Stop Stealing’ rally on Jan. 6, believes the 2020 election was ‘stolen’ as a result of COVID-19. The “guardrails [were] ascended, ”she said.
But Denver Riggleman, a former Virginia congressman who lost his seat on a GOP convention last summer, said every candidate’s messages about election integrity “are based on bullsh * t.”
“‘Election integrity’ is an umbrella term for ‘Stop the Steal.’ ‘Stop the Steal’ is a cover name for QAnon. It is based on a real conspiratorial attack that did a lot of damage,” said Riggleman, who still considers to become an independent governor.
A poll by Christopher Newport University found that 61% of Republicans believe that Mr. Biden did not legitimately win.
Quentin Kidd, the Dean of Arts and Sciences at Christopher Newport University, said Mr. Trump’s embrace and his debunked claims of massive voter fraud are the result of a candidate like Chase pushing the field to the right, and of an “ echo chamber ” ‘. “occupied by GOP candidates and the base.
“Election integrity is the most important issue for the grassroots. And in a race like this, that’s all you’re really talking to,” added Virginia Republican strategist David Alvarez.
Kidd predicted Cox or Snyder would win the nomination, but said whoever it is will have a problem reaching statewide voters after chasing the base to the right to win the convention.
“The question is, are Republicans in those rival states willing to distance themselves enough from Trumpism to be competitive? Or are they going to double down on Trumpism, and in my opinion, really hurt themselves in general?” he said.
Republican candidates have made former Democratic governor and candidate Terry McAuliffe their prime target for the general. Democrats will hold their governmental primary election in June.
According to Chase, a convention process asking citizens to become deputies in order to vote will prevent the party from fully tapping into Mr Trump’s base in November.
“If we want to win statewide elections, we need more buy-in from our candidates, not just from the party elites,” she said. “The Bush Republicans, the Cheney Republicans, they need to acknowledge that the people are awake and it is a new day. It’s time they understand they are staying here and hug them.
She too is still considering an independent run, out of anger over a convention process she believes has already been manipulated. “Let’s see what happens,” Chase replied.