As the US continues to distribute the first COVID-19 vaccines, a viral tweet shared what was said “COVID-19 survival rates” from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about the severity of the virus and the need for vaccinations. to play down.
“CDC COVID-19 Survival Rates,” said the emoji-filled tweet from Emma Jimenez, a conservative blogger and activist. Age 0-19 – 99.997%. Age 20-49 – 99.98%. Age 50-69 – 99.5%. Age 70+ – 94.6%. Why is a COVID-19 vaccine so aggressively expelled? Hmmmm. “
Screenshots of the tweet were also shared on Facebook and Instagram, where they were flagged as part of Facebook’s efforts to combat false news and misinformation on the news feed.
However, the age-specific “survival rates” reported in the post were not from the CDC. CDC spokesman Jasmine Reed told PolitiFact that the agency has not released any age-specific COVID-19 survival rates, nor does it have any mortality rates.
“Survival analysis is very complex,” said Reed. “CDC does not have the data to calculate COVID-19 survivability. Unclear where social media users get this information.”
“We don’t have that data, so we don’t know,” said Cindy Prins, an epidemiologist at the University of Florida. “And neither did the person who posted (the tweet).”
Sketchy sourcing
The tweet did not mention a specific CDC source for its “COVID-19 survival rates.” PolitiFact tried to reach Jimenez through posts on her conservative Latina Twitter and Facebook accounts, but we didn’t hear back.
The numbers are in line with the parameters included as part of CDC planning scenarios designed to help public health agencies model the impact of the pandemic.
In a September paper titled “COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios,” the agency listed five sets of parameters representing different levels of disease severity and transmittability, with the aim of helping public health authorities model the effects of the disease. estimate the virus.
The death rates for infections listed under the scenario marked as the “current best estimate” are consistent with the “survival rates” reported in the tweet. But those infection death rates, the document says, are based on data through Aug. 8. And there are other caveats.
Lead Stories debunked a Facebook post citing the same scenarios to falsely claim that the CDC had downgraded the severity of COVID-19 to something less than the flu.
The CDC paper says the scenarios “are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19” and “do not reflect the impact of behavioral changes, social detachment or other interventions.” It also says “uncertainty remains around almost all parameter values.”
The tweet also ignored the toll that a seemingly small death rate can take if a disease spreads out of control. Johns Hopkins University estimates the observed death rates for cases – calculated as the number of known deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases – at about 1.8% for the US. At that rate, if every American got COVID-19, there would be nearly 6 million deaths.
Doctors have gotten better at treating the disease since the outbreak of the pandemic, PolitiFact reported. But the number of new COVID-19 cases and deaths reported every day in the US has skyrocketed in recent weeks. “Additional deaths” remain above historical standards. The risk of serious illness from the coronavirus increases with age, the CDC says.
Chances of survival are difficult to estimate
In a pandemic, it is difficult to determine data points such as survival rates, Prins told PolitiFact. Such rates are usually calculated for a longer period of time and not as a snapshot.
Deaths and death reporting lag behind in identifying new cases, sometimes for months on end, so we never quite find out who ‘survived’ unless we establish a time period to look at, as we do with five-year survival in cancers , or the disease will go away and we can look back on the pandemic as a whole, ”said Prins.
“ In addition, we know that there are side effects of COVID-19 such as myocarditis that can occur long after ‘recovery’ but can cause death later, so both survival rates and death rates are more accurate over time. . “
A widespread vaccination effort would prevent more deaths, protect people from serious disease, slow the spread and put the US back on its normal path.
PolitiFact ruling
A tweet said that “CDC COVID-19 survival rates” are 99.997% for people 0 to 19 years old, 99.98% for people 20 to 49 years old, 99.5% for people 50 to 69 years old, and 94.6 % for people over 70.
The CDC has not released survival rates and does not have the data to do so. It’s not clear where the tweet’s numbers came from, but they match numbers listed as part of CDC “planning scenarios” used to plan a pandemic response.
We are rating this message as False.