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The UK appears to be in an enviable place as a third wave of coronavirus infections sweeps across Europe. The rapid roll-out of vaccines and weeks of lockdown to suppress what the continent calls the “English tribe” have plunged deaths and hospitalizations.
Still, concerns are growing within the London government that progress could be undermined by vaccine-resistant varieties and a toxic variety political quarrel with the European Union over exports that could lead to a shortage of doses.
The jump in infections on the doorstep of Britain could now be the first truly global test to determine whether a pacing vaccination program is sufficient to keep a country protected. It also gives an indication of whether it is enough to ensure that there is no setback in the reopening of the economy.
After a steady decline, Covid-19 infections across the UK are on the decline nationwide and are starting to increase among the under-19s after schools reopened this month. There is also the prospect that priority should be given to phasing out vaccination to give people a second dose after the UK decided to widen the gap between injections. That would mean that the younger part of the population will not remain vaccinated for longer.
People are lining up to enter an NHS Covid-19 vaccination center in London.
Photographer: Tolga Akmen / AFP / Getty Images
According to Bloomberg, the UK has given 43% of the country at least one dose – or more than half of the adult population – compared to 9.6% in the European Union. Vaccine Tracker. That has led Britain to stand out for positive reasons after recording Europe’s highest death toll from Covid-19 and a series of government missteps.
But the UK is still in an “incredibly risky situation,” it said Susan Michie, a behavioral scientist who is a member of the government’s scientific advisory committee on SAGE. “We have a partially vaccinated population with still high levels of transmission – meaning many mutations and variants,” she said. “The more variants, the more likely there will be variants that undermine the vaccination program.”
The third wave in Europe is mainly driven by the more contagious British strain of the virus, but the South African and Brazilian versions account for 40% of all new cases in some regions of France, according to data presented to the UK government . by the newspaper The Times.
Any increase in these new species is very concerning, as it is not yet clear how resistant they are to vaccines. “When a wave hits our friends,” Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned on March 22. “I’m afraid it will also wash up on our shores.”
Politically it is also a mess. Officials in the UK and EU are in talks about how best to resolve a vaccine sharing dispute after the bloc tightened export restrictions. This followed a temporary suspension of the AstraZeneca Plc vaccine in some countries due to concerns about side effects undermined public confidence.
Boris Johnson will speak to people who had just been vaccinated at St. Thomas’ Hospital in London on March 19.
Photographer: Frank Augstein-WPA Pool / Getty Images
The British government has tried – in general – to stay above the fray in public. Johnson has said repeatedly that all countries are “fighting the same pandemic.” The government does not want to lose its “moral high ground,” said a minister, speaking on condition of anonymity.
But behind closed doors, the government fears what a blockade of vaccines from Europe would mean for Britain – especially as the UK faces a significant reduction in supply in April due to delayed delivery from India and retesting of a separate batch.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said on Friday that tensions over the supply of AstraZeneca were partly due to the UK’s vaccination strategy and suggested the UK was blackmailing Europe. “People have wanted to vaccinate en masse with a first dose and then become mildly disabled for the second dose,” he said. “Europe does not have to pay the price for this policy.”
A senior EU official said the UK was “too committed” to having rolled out so many first doses without ensuring supplies for second doses. That means Johnson’s government now badly needs EU help, the official claimed.
The UK government says vaccine supplies remain safe and there is no danger of people getting their second dose within 12 weeks.
The Moderna vaccine will be rolled out in a few weeks.
Photographer: Stephen Zenner / Bloomberg
There are also new shots in the pipeline. The Moderna Inc. vaccine, made in the US, has been approved by the UK regulator and is expected to be rolled out in a few weeks. The Novavax Inc. shot, to be made in the UK, awaiting approval.
Having a wide variety of vaccines is vital for immunizing people under 50, controlling cases and preventing new variants from South Africa and Brazil in the UK from emerging. Lawrence Young, a virologist at Warwick Medical School. He pointed to a surge in the number of younger people hospitalized in Brazil. “That’s a concern and so I don’t think there is room for complacency.”
Read more: The next UK Covid challenge could be public complacency
However, the government is under pressure to reopen the economy and give people a semblance of normalcy this summer. “If pubs, restaurants and the wedding industry don’t get going again, people will lose their jobs and people will lose which brings them joy,” said Steve Baker, a senior parliamentarian with the ruling Conservative Party.
Johnson admitted this week that holidays abroad “look difficult for now,” another blow to the travel industry. He will set out plans for travel in early April, but privately, people within the government are pessimistic.
A British official warned that if Britons were allowed to go abroad this summer, it would be “madness”. “It’s like, ‘Hello new variants, come in,’” said the person.
– With the help of Geraldine Amiel