The latest UTSW COVID-19 forecast shows that while hospital admissions for the virus in DFW have hit record highs, the trajectory of new cases in Dallas and Tarrant counties could be very different.
Researchers at the Southwestern Medical Center at the University of Texas at Dallas released their latest COVID-19 forecasting model on Tuesday, which predicted that new daily infections in Dallas County are expected to subside with the continued enforcement of current prevention measures. However, in Tarrant County, daily infections are expected to increase significantly under the same conditions.
“The spread of the infection is not uniform in the North Texas region, and the Dallas and Tarrant counties divergent,” UTSW said in the report. (can be found at the bottom of this page). “While hospital admissions in Dallas County are expected to remain flat at their current high levels until Christmas, hospital admissions in Tarrant County are expected to increase by an additional 20% over the same period.”
Through Tuesday, the 7-day and 14-day averages of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Dallas County are 1,493 and 1,415 per day, respectively. UTSW’s forecast through Christmas is about 1,400 new infections per day. UTSW expects Dallas County hospital admissions, which are up just 2% in the past two weeks, to reach 580-980 concurrent cases on Christmas Day.
However, the model predicts a different story in Tarrant County, where the 7-day and 14-day averages of confirmed COVID-19 cases are 1,153 and 1,234 cases per day through Tuesday, respectively. The model (can be found at the bottom of this page) predicts that by Christmas Day, the number of daily infections in Tarrant County could reach 2,400 per day. Hospital admissions of COVID-19 patients in the province, which are up 11% in the past two weeks and exceed 900 on Mondays and Tuesdays, are expected to be between 830 and 1,450 on December 25.
The UTSW model predicts that without more attempts to flatten the curve, the range of cases in Tarrant County will continue to rise.
With that in mind, UTSW urged those planning Christmas vacation plans to adopt common preventive measures to reduce the spread of disease due to the high incidence of infections and hospitalizations in the area. The risk of infection is increased by colder weather pushing outdoor gatherings indoors.
Common preventative measures include wearing masks, staying at home as much as possible, taking physical distance in public and washing your hands often.
In their report, UTSW warns that “model building is an iterative process with inherent uncertainty in predictions. It facilitates planning and should not be the sole basis for policy or management decisions for an emerging infection.”
The latest UTSW model was created using real patient data received from Dallas and Tarrant health departments, regional hospitals and health systems through December 11. They also recall that people who arrived at the hospital today were likely infected about two weeks ago. UTSW reruns their models and refines the charts each time they receive new data.