US Coronavirus: Covid-19 cases have declined sharply. These factors will determine how the pandemic unfolds from here, say a group of experts

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According to the latest model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an additional 130,000 Americans are expected to die from the virus in the next three and a half months.
And while Covid-19’s numbers may now go in the right direction, there are four key factors that will determine how the coming months will unfold, the IHME said in a briefing to its model.
The first two are what will likely help the pandemic numbers continue on a downward trajectory: increasing vaccinations and decreasing seasonality – referring to the pattern of lower transmission likely to be in the US during the spring and summer months.

“Two factors, however, could delay or even reverse the onset of declines,” said the IHME team.

The first factor is the spread of the B.1.1.7 variety, which was first identified in the UK and experts warned it could become the dominant species in the US in the spring. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that more than 980 cases of the variant have been detected in 37 states to date.

The second factor, according to the IHME team, is “more behaviors that promote COVID-19 transmission.”

“Transmission has been limited over the winter by wearing a mask, reduced mobility and avoiding hazardous environments such as eating indoors,” said the team. “As the number of daily cases decreases and vaccination increases, behavior is likely to change towards an increased risk of transmission.”
Despite variants, vaccines are still good news
That’s why experts say now is not the time for the US to drop its guard. But a growing list of governors is easing Covid-19 restrictions.

On Friday, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said the state has rolled back Covid-19 restrictions on youth sports, allowing parents or guardians of young athletes to participate. On the same day, the Governor of Maine issued an executive order to expand collection boundaries for houses of worship.

Indoor dining – with capacity constraints – resumed in New York City ahead of Valentine’s Day, with New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announcing Friday that he was extending bar and restaurant closing times to 11 p.m. statewide.
A nurse administers the COVID-19 vaccine to Kedren Health on Thursday, February 11, 2021 in Los Angeles, California

‘One step closer to winning the war against COVID’

Despite concerns that remain, officials hope that as vaccinations increase they will leave their mark on the course of the pandemic.

So far, about 37 million Americans have received at least their first dose of the two-part Covid-19 vaccines available for the U.S. market, data from CDC shows. According to the data, about 13 million Americans are now fully vaccinated.
Covid-19 vaccination is essential for people with underlying health conditions, but access varies from state to state

“Our vaccine offerings are on the rise, the positivity rate is falling and we are getting one step closer to winning the war against COVID every day,” Cuomo said in a statement, referring to the vaccinations in New York.

The state has so far administered 90% of the first dose of vaccines it has received from the federal government and more than 80% of the first and second doses, the governor said.

Almost a third of American adults are undecided about the Covid-19 vaccine. Some say friends and family can influence them

In California, officials announced that millions of people will be added to the vaccination priority list, including residents “at high risk with developmental and other disabilities” and residents with serious underlying health conditions. The plan, starting in mid-March, broadens the ages 65 and older to 16 to 64 years who fall into those categories.

But the announcement comes as the state continues to face challenges, including “vaccine scarcity,” said California Health and Human Services Agency secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly. That supply shortage forced several mass vaccination centers in Los Angeles to close last week.
The move to vaccinate more prioritized groups – especially those with co-morbidities or underlying health problems – has not been uniform nationwide, an analysis by CNN found.

In some states, people with underlying health conditions are not yet eligible for the vaccine.

In the states where they are, there is variation in what conditions a person qualifies for and what it takes to confirm that condition. And where those groups are eligible for a vaccine, counties may have different timelines for how quickly those groups are vaccinated.

A new challenge during the weekend

Meanwhile, some parts of the US face another challenge that slows vaccinations: the weather.

Winter storms stretch from coast to coast and affect 100 million people

Federal officials expect shipments of Covid-19 vaccines to Texas to be delayed this week due to a powerful winter storm, said W. Nim Kidd, chief of the Texas Emergency Management division.

“Our vaccines arriving on Sunday will probably not arrive on Monday until Wednesday, Thursday, so we will see delays in the vaccine entering the state,” Kidd said.

Some local outdoor vaccination facilities also closed before the storm, the chief added.

“Indoor vaccinations will continue as long as it is safe to drive,” said Kidd.

Meanwhile, in Oregon, the massive Covid-19 vaccination site at the Oregon Convention Center will be closed Sunday due to weather, according to a tweet from Kaiser Permanente NW. The center is located in Portland, where snow and rain have caused major power outages.
Those who had appointments will be contacted to make another appointment tweet said.

How CDC recommends you travel

Meanwhile, as officials continue to monitor both ongoing vaccinations and the spread of variants, there have been questions as to whether there could be changes in travel-related requirements.

CDC does not recommend a Covid-19 testing requirement prior to domestic travel
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said recently that the Biden administration is considering a rule requiring negative Covid-19 test results for domestic air travel.
But the CDC told CNN that the agency does not currently recommend a Covid-19 testing requirement for domestic air travel.

“At this time, the CDC does not recommend mandatory departure point testing for domestic travel,” the CDC statement said. “As part of our close monitoring of the pandemic, in particular the continued spread of variants, we will continue to explore public health options to contain and reduce the spread of COVID-19 in the travel space.”

The CDC also added that it does not recommend travel at this time.

“If someone has to travel, they should get tested with a viral test 1-3 days before the trip,” the agency said. “After the trip, it is a recommended public health measure to be tested with a viral test 3-5 days after the trip and stay at home and quarantine for 7 days, even if the test results are negative.”

And just because someone has been vaccinated doesn’t mean they have a free pass to travel and aren’t following guidelines, Dr. Anthony Fauci has previously warned.

“It’s not a good idea to travel, period,” said Fauci. “If you absolutely have to travel and it’s essential, then of course you should. But we don’t want people to think because they’re vaccinated, then other public health recommendations just don’t apply.”

CNN’s Michael Nedelman, Lauren Mascarenhas, Elizabeth Cohen, Melissa Alonso Rebekah Riess, Hollie Silverman, Stephanie Becker, Cheri Mossburg, Kristina Sgueglia, and Evan Simko-Bednarski contributed to this report.

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