US Coronavirus: Cases have declined sharply. These factors will determine how the pandemic unfolds from here, say a group of experts

“Two factors, however, could delay or even reverse the onset of declines,” said the IHME team.

One such factor is the spread of the B.1.1.7 variety, which was first identified in the UK and experts warned it could become the dominant species in the US in the spring. Data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released Sunday shows that more than 1,173 cases of the variant have been detected in 39 states to date.

Another important factor, according to the IHME team, is “more behaviors that promote Covid-19 transmission.”

“Transmission has been limited over the winter by wearing a mask, reduced mobility and avoiding hazardous environments such as eating indoors,” said the team. “As the number of daily cases decreases and vaccination increases, behavior is likely to change towards an increased risk of transmission.”
That’s why experts say now is not the time for the US to lower its guard, even as a growing list of governors relaxes Covid-19 restrictions.

CNN medical analyst Dr. Leana Wen said on Sunday that declining numbers were good news. “But I am also very concerned about these variants because in other countries we have seen what happens when there is an explosive spread of these more contagious variants,” Wen said on CNN’s “Inside Politics.”

“I think it’s really important for us to ramp up vaccinations as much as possible while doing our best to continue masking and physical distance – these other measures that we know are very important in controlling of the spread of infection. ”

In addition to the B.1.1.7 variant, the CDC said on Sunday 17 cases of the B.1.351 Covid strain initially seen in South Africa, in seven states and in Washington, DC. There are also two cases of the P.1 strain first associated with Brazil – one in Minnesota and one in Oklahoma – he said.

The agency said the data does not represent the total number of such cases circulating in the US, but only the cases found by analyzing positive samples.

A nurse will administer a Covid-19 vaccine to Kedren Health in Los Angeles on Thursday.

The debate about reopening schools continues

Nearly a year later, the debate continues over how to safely return students to class, even after the CDC released long-awaited guidelines last Friday outlining five key strategies, including wearing a universal mask.
On CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday, CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky the need for masks and other mitigating measures to safely reopen the school. She said “mask violation” was the main reason behind the spread of coronavirus in schools, although transmission in schools is usually associated with spreading in the surrounding community.
The CDC guidance includes a color-coded map to describe the transmission levels, from blue to red, with the latter representing high transmission. According to a CNN analysis of federal data, about 99% of the US population under the age of 18-73 million minors live in what is called a “red” zone.
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Walensky acknowledged that “many” provinces remain in a red zone. Schools in red zones should pursue a hybrid model if they are elementary school, she said, while middle and secondary schools either pursue virtual learning or continue a hybrid model if they can adhere to strict physical distance.

Meanwhile, Dr. Wished she found the CDC’s guidance both “good and problematic.”

She liked that the guidelines specifically defined transmission levels for certain mitigation measures. But she criticized other aspects, including the fact that vaccinations are not cited as a “key” strategy for reopening schools. She didn’t understand why the topic was up for discussion.

“If we want students to go to school to learn in person, the least we can do is protect the health and well-being of our teachers,” said Wen, “especially since in parts of the country, teachers are already being forced to resume. going to school in poorly ventilated, tight spaces with many students not always masking and practicing with physical distance. ”

Walensky noted Sunday that guidance from the CDC’s vaccine advisory committee puts teachers in the Phase 1B category for vaccinations.

“I am very much in favor of teachers getting their vaccinations,” she said, “but we do not believe it is a prerequisite for schools to reopen.”

‘One step closer to winning the war’

Despite ongoing concerns, officials hope the continued surge in vaccinations will start to shift the course of the pandemic in a positive direction.

So far, just over 38 million people have received their first dose of the two-dose vaccines available in the U.S. market, according to CDC data released Sunday, and about 14 million people have been fully vaccinated. In total, nearly 53 million doses have been administered – about 72% of all doses distributed.
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The IHME expects 145 million adults to be vaccinated by June 1, it said in a statement, which would prevent 114,000 deaths.

“Our vaccine offerings are on the rise, the positivity rate is declining and we are getting one step closer to winning the war against COVID every day,” New York government Andrew Cuomo said in a statement on Saturday, referring to the vaccinations in New York.

On Sunday, the state had administered 89% of the first dose of vaccines it received from the federal government and 83% of the first and second doses, the governor’s office said.

In California, officials announced that millions of people will be added to the vaccination priority list, including residents “at high risk with developmental and other disabilities” and residents with serious underlying health conditions. The plan, starting in mid-March, expands the ages of eligible individuals aged 65 and over to 16 to 64 who fall into those categories.

Still, the state continues to struggle with a “scarcity of vaccines,” said California Health and Human Services Agency secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly. Due to the supply shortage, several mass vaccination centers in Los Angeles have been temporarily closed.

A new challenge during the weekend

Some parts of the US face another challenge this weekend that slows vaccinations: winter weather.

Federal officials expect shipments of Covid-19 vaccines to Texas to be delayed this week due to a powerful winter storm, said W. Nim Kidd, chief of the Texas Emergency Management division.

“Our vaccines arriving Sunday, Monday are not likely to arrive until Wednesday, Thursday,” Kidd said Saturday, “so we will see delays in the vaccine entering the state.”

Some local outdoor vaccination facilities also closed before the storm, Kidd added, although the administration of indoor vaccinations will continue “as long as it is still safe to drive there.”

Alabama Governor Kay Ivey declared a state of emergency on Sunday ahead of the expected winter weather. According to a press release from Ivey’s office, the state of emergency will encompass 28 counties.

“Weather permitting and roads remain safe, Alabamians who have plans to get their Covid-19 vaccine should still do so,” the press release said.

Winter storms stretch from coast to coast and affect 100 million people
In Portland, Oregon, where rain and snow have caused widespread power outages, the massive Covid-19 vaccination site at the Oregon Convention Center is closed on Sunday due to weather, according to a tweet from Kaiser Permanente NWThose who had appointments will be contacted to reschedule.
The Washington State Department of Health said it also expected a delayed delivery of vaccine doses due to weather, in addition to announcing that it would prioritize second dose delivery this week, limiting the number of appointments available for first doses. .

Vaccine providers in the state had requested about 170,000 doses this week, but the state was only allocated about 92,000, the department said in a press release. The difference was likely because some health care providers had used vaccine doses as initial doses when they were intended as second doses last month.

That unfortunately means that some of this week’s first doses available should be used instead to complete the two-dose regimen for those individuals.

CNN’s Michael Nedelman, Lauren Mascarenhas, Elizabeth Cohen, Melissa Alonso Rebekah Riess, Hollie Silverman, Stephanie Becker, Cheri Mossburg, Kristina Sgueglia, and Evan Simko-Bednarski contributed to this report.

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