Iran’s latest move against the 2015 nuclear deal has caught the attention of the international powers, raising the stakes for a return to the multi-country deal as it demands the lifting of US sanctions.
UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), confirmed a report last week that Iran has begun to produce uranium metal, a move that violates the parameters of the 2015 deal – aka the JCPOA – that lifts sanctions against Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program.
Unenriched uranium metal has little civil use and is different from enriched uranium, which can be used for nuclear power.
Iran says its activity is to produce fuel for a research reactor. IAEA inspectors confirmed a minutely small volume of 3.6 grams (0.1 ounces) of the substance at a facility in Isfahan – less than the size of a thimble.
But for some in the international community it has raised the alarm, as a larger amount of the metal – about half a kilo, according to experts – can be used to build the core of an atomic bomb.
An annotated satellite image of construction at Iran’s Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility, with analysis by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey.
Photo: Planet Labs Inc. | AP
“This is one of the most serious nuclear steps they have taken,” a former Obama administration official involved in the original JCPOA negotiations against CNBC said, referring to Iran. “It’s quite provocative.” The former official spoke on condition of anonymity due to professional limitations in speaking to the press.
The UK, France and Germany, all supporters of the JCPOA, said in January that Iran “has no credible civilian use of uranium metal.” They described the news as “very worrying”.
“Uranium metal production has potentially serious military implications,” they warned.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the Europeans’ statement is significant.
“You know you’re in trouble if Europeans don’t buy Tehran’s ‘civil use’ argument. That’s what should ring alarm bells,” he said.
Incremental rollbacks
Iran has gradually reversed its compliance with the JCPOA since May 2019, a year after the Trump administration withdrew from the deal and began imposing severe “maximum pressure” sanctions on the country for what it described as its destabilizing regional activities. .
Tehran’s most recent moves include raising uranium enrichment and inventory levels above the limits set in the deal, in an effort to pressure Washington to lift the sanctions – which have paralyzed the Iranian economy – and to return to the deal, something the Biden administration has done. expressed his wish to do.
Importantly, Iranian officials insist that the steps are reversible and have held out hope for a return to the agreement under Biden. But the White House says Iran must first comply with the deal in full again, while Iran says it must lift US sanctions first, which could create a potential stalemate.
‘It’s reversible’
Still, regional experts believe the nuclear deal is salvageable.
Iran “is trying to underline how important it is for them to get the US back into the JCPOA,” said the former Obama official. “I don’t think this completely undermines the possibility of coming back into the JCPOA, but it is disturbing.”
Aniseh Tabrizi, a senior research fellow and Iran expert at the Royal United Services Institute, agreed.
“It is reversible, especially if done in the short term,” she said of uranium metal production in Iran. “There has been a conviction, but no sign that this is the end of any attempt to revive the discussions on the JCPOA.”
In the meantime, however, “Iran has the opportunity to exert significant pressure in the short term” on the other signatories to the deal, said Sanam Vakil, deputy head of the Middle East North Africa program at Chatham House, a British. thinktank.
But in the long run, she said, “the United States should be involved in the joint committee talks,” because the US is at the center of the deal and sanctions aid for Iran.
An important date to keep an eye out is February 21 – at which point new hard laws are passed by the Iranian parliament, including a ruling preventing further IAEA inspections. But crucially, Vakil said, the crisis is under control ahead of Iran’s June elections.
“If the international community really wants to manage this crisis with Iran, it is essential to roll out the JCPOA compliance strategy and initiate a plan to talk to Iran and the Joint Commission,” she said. “The sooner they can roll that out, the better they can soften Iran’s further efforts to raise the bar.”
For Ben Taleblu of the FDD, Iran’s tactics so far have been both dangerous and meaningless. “Tehran’s ongoing nuclear escalation means that its new violations are necessarily more dangerous,” he said. “Despite Iran’s escalating strategy, neither the Trump nor the Biden team have so far reversed the course of major economic sanctions.”