A storm heading toward Santa Barbara County later this week could drop heavy amounts of rain and cause wind and snow in some areas, according to the National Weather Service.
“You have it all in Santa Barbara County,” said John Dumas, a meteorologist with the NWS in Oxnard.
After a dry Tuesday, a severe storm is predicted to blow off as early as Wednesday and Thursday over the region, mainly in northern Santa Barbara County, the NWS forecast discussion said.
The storm will start to pass through the area on Thursday and Friday.
Precipitation totals from Tuesday night through Friday evening are expected to be between 10 and 20 cm in Santa Barbara County, with the western and northern parts of the county getting higher amounts, according to the National Weather Service forecast.
“The number depends on where you are in Santa Barbara County,” Dumas said, adding, “I would say 5 inches wouldn’t be unreasonable, but less (rain) over Santa Barbara itself.”
This much rainfall can cause local flooding and other problems, and officials say they will keep an eye on recent fire areas for any major problems.
Aaron Briner, a battalion chief for the Montecito Fire Protection District, said in a statement Tuesday that the rainfall and winds from this storm increase the risk of rocks falling on roads in mountains and gorges, flood problems and traffic delays and accidents.
“The Storm Impact Consideration Map will be used by emergency managers to consider evacuation needs when there is an expected saturation rainfall with a period of high intensity / short rainfall reaching about 25 inches of rain for two to three days,” he wrote. .
The Santa Barbara County Storm Impact Considerations map shows areas under the Thomas Fire combustion area that can be affected by storm-related floods and debris flows. The map includes the communities of Montecito, Summerland, and Carpinteria Valley. (Screenshot via ReadySBC.org)
Briner said emergency managers do not anticipate issuing evacuation warnings or orders for this storm, but that could change if the forecast or weather conditions change.
The Thomas Fire Storm Impact Considerations Map and FEMA Flood Risk Map can be viewed online at https://readysbc.org/maps/.
The province has also created a storm-related risk map for the 2019 Cave Fire combustion area.
Tom Fayram, Santa Barbara County deputy director of water resources, said the county is in constant contact with the Montecito storm team agencies.
The county will monitor the rainfall and “if some debris is produced, we will mobilize, as we have done over the years to restore conditions,” Fayram told Noozhawk in an email.
The predicted wind and snow triggered a winter storm warning for the Santa Barbara County mountains that was in effect until 10 p.m. Monday. The weather service said the warning includes the San Marcos Pass, San Rafael Wilderness and Dick Smith Wilderness area.
Wind gusts of up to 65 mph are forecast, and total snow accumulation can range from 2-5 inches in some areas.
Snow can hit low elevations, up to 2500 feet on Monday evenings and up to 5000 feet on Wednesdays.
“Overall, this will be a significant rain and snow event, especially in San Luis Obispo / Santa Barbara counties,” said the NWS forecast discussion.
Daytime highs should be near 60 degrees Tuesday and mid-50s through Wednesday, with nighttime lows in the 40s.
The hail lingers on Jalama Road in western Santa Barbara County on Monday. (Mike Eliason photo)
Lake Cachuma had about 64% capacity, Montecito’s Jameson Reservoir was about 74% capacity, Twitchell Reservoir had almost 2% capacity, and Santa Barbara’s Gibraltar Reservoir was more than 9% full as of Monday afternoon, according to the County Flood Control District.
“We need this rain for any hope of inflow to our reservoirs this year,” said Fayram.
As of Monday afternoon, the province had about 31% of its normal rainfall to date, and measured at about 15% of its normal rainfall in the water year that started on September 1 and ended on August 31.
“We need the rain, but we will get on top of it,” said Fayram.
Wind, high surf advisories in effect for areas on the south coast
According to the NWS, coastal areas will also experience strong winds this week.
A wind advisory is in effect until 10:00 PM Monday on the south coast of Santa Barbara County, including the Santa Barbara, Montecito and Carpinteria areas.
Northwest winds 20-35mph, with gusts of up to 50mph are forecast. According to forecasters, travel on roads in the area can be affected by gusty crosswinds, including Highway 101, Highway 154, and Highway 192 in Santa Barbara County.
“Slow down and consider using alternative routes to avoid highways in the mountains,” wrote the County Office of Emergency Management Twitter.
In addition, there is a high surf advice until Tuesday 6 p.m. along some beaches on the south coast.
Waves 5-8 feet and dangerous rip currents are expected on exposed west-facing beaches until Tuesday morning, with possible local sets as high as 10 feet. The surf is expected to decline slowly on Tuesday afternoon, forecasters said.
According to the NWS, there is a risk of local flooding in coastal areas from high surf and the rainfall expected later this week.
Preparation tips for the storm
Santa Barbara County recently updated its risk map for floods and debris flows under the Thomas Fire combustion area, in Montecito, Summerland and Carpinteria.
That can be viewed online by clicking here, and the county has more storm preparedness resources available at readysbc.org/storm-ready/.
Sign up online for county emergency alerts here or follow the prompts at readysbc.org.
The Nixle Alert System sends 138 character messages and residents can sign up by texting their zip code to the number 888777.
Residents should prepare by taking every possible step to protect their properties and businesses, such as placing sandbags in areas they know are prone to flooding, said Kelly Hubbard, director of the County Office of Emergency Management .
»Click here for information on where to find sandbags in the province.
Residents should also consider checking their emergency kits to make sure it is stocked with working batteries, flashlights, water, food, first aid kits, and other items.
»Click here for a homeowners guide to flood prevention and control, and click here for the guide in Spanish.
“Once it starts to rain, residents should really consider staying at home whenever possible,” Hubbard said. “When driving, remember to turn around and not cross flooded roads. It only takes a few inches of water to create unsafe conditions.”
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– Noozhawk personnel writer Brooke Holland can be reached at . (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). Follow Noozhawk on Twitter: @noozhawk, @Newsurvey and @RTLnews. Connect with Noozhawk on Facebook.