Unemployment claims for the self-employed have fallen sharply. Or did they?

The self-employed and handyman last week claimed unemployment benefits at half the previous week’s level, according to labor department data reported Thursday.

That points to a strong rebound, breaking from persistently high – even rising – levels in recent weeks.

But that recovery probably didn’t happen. It only happened on paper, experts say.

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Initial claims for pandemic unemployment assistance – a temporary federal program that pays benefits to gigs and other workers ineligible for state aid – fell to about 161,000 last week. The week before, about 310,000 employees filed for PUA benefits.

Economists and unemployment experts gave a few explanations as to why the decline occurred.

The sharp drop is likely related to the timing of a recent $ 900 billion Covid aid package, interstate administrative issues and employee behavior, they said.

It also comes against the background of persistently high claims for benefits in other unemployment programs. In total, more than 1 million Americans applied for help last week.

“The 50% drop in initial claims is nothing at first glance to accept,” said Elizabeth Pancotti, a policy adviser at Employ America, a progressive group, on Twitter.

The aid law extends the PUA program by 11 weeks until mid-March. It would end the day after Christmas. President Donald Trump signed the legislation in late December, after a delay of nearly a week, but for many workers, that signature probably didn’t take place in time to avoid at least a brief breakdown of benefits.

“There was a lot of uncertainty as to whether PUA would be renewed, which could have affected the plaintiff’s behavior,” said AnnElizabeth Konkel, an economist on the job site. said.

Experts generally agree that the data is a blip and states will change the data in next week’s count, which would almost certainly increase the number.

Many states – Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Indiana, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wyoming – reported no data at all on the initial claims for the PUA program during the week ending Jan. 2. However, they reported a combined total of more than 100,000 the week before, according to the Department of Labor.

Other states such as Illinois, Kentucky and Louisiana reported a total of just 75 claims – tens of thousands fewer than at the end of December.