Brexit artisans have long appealed for a British rapprochement with the United States to make up for the divorce with the European Union. And for that Donald Trump seemed the perfect partner with his disdain for multilateralism and Brussels institutions.
But in January At the same time, the United Kingdom will leave the bloc of 27 countries permanently and will face a new US president, Joe Biden, who gives priority to the EU and does not share the isolationist spirit of the “Brexiters”.
Biden, of Irish and Catholic descent, has warned British Prime Minister Boris Johnson of any action that endangers peace in Northern Ireland, especially a return to a physical border with Ireland, an EU member state.
On that point, London reached an agreement with Brussels even before the general post-Brexit deal was reached on Thursday, a sign, according to analysts, of some influence from Biden’s election victory.
“London understood that a problem on the Northern Ireland border would have been absolutely toxic to British-American relations,” said Jacob Kirkegaard of the American think tank German Marshall Fund.
Johnson’s conservative government has underlined points where it shares an affinity with Biden, including the fight against climate change.. The November Climate Conference in Glasgow, Scotland, will be the opportunity to highlight the common ambition of the two transatlantic partners.
London and Washington should also be on the same page on Iran after four years of disagreement.
“On paper, the British Conservative Party is closer to the Democratic Party than to Donald Trump’s Republican Party,” notes Kirkegaard.
The British also announced a historic rise in military spending, to try, according to Kirkegaard, remain at the level of power as strategic partners of the United States, especially amid tensions with China. But the next US president may be more drawn to the EU’s military might.
“The Britain of Brexit has tried to make itself relevant, but it is no longer strictly necessary for the United States to have it on its side,” he says.
“I’m Irish”
Biden has surrounded himself with former Barack Obama advisers who are reluctant to forget that in 2016, in line with the thinking of the far-right in the US, Johnson said that the then President of the United States had an ‘ancestral antipathy’ towards the United Kingdom because of its “Kenyan” origin.
The president-elect, who will enter the White House on January 20, does not hesitate for his part to emphasize his Irish ancestry, apparently distancing himself from the United Kingdom.
In a video that was widely watched after the election, Biden tells a BBC reporter who tries to ask him a question, “The BBC? I’m Irish,” before showing a friendly smile.
“Some people in Biden’s circle clearly feel that Brexit was a completely wrong decision and that Johnson was very close to Trump.”says Erik Brattberg, director of the European program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “They think that the relationship with London should be downplayed a bit.”
But he clarifies that Biden recognizes the special relationship with the UK and will not neglect this important ally, as his predecessor did with other European leaders, especially Germany’s Angela Merkel.
“Trump’s style was more to promote division in Europe, while Biden will look to his legacy to try to heal that division,” Brattberg said.
Not a priority in the trade
London has sped up plans to negotiate a trade deal with the United States to offset the European divorce, but lawmakers from Biden’s Democratic party have warned that all negotiations were off the table while the Northern Ireland issue was still unresolved.
But even if Northern Ireland’s status is provisionally settled, any deal could be highly unpopular with British public opinion, due to the United States’ less stringent animal welfare standards for meat and likely higher drug prices.
Biden has indicated that he will not prioritize signing new trade deals, and without the approval of Congress, on July 1, it loses the ability to resort to mechanisms to speed up negotiations.
“It will be very difficult, if not impossible, for the United States to reach an agreement with the United Kingdom,” said Jennifer Hillman, an analyst with the Council on Foreign Relations, who estimates the negotiations will end in April.