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The SARS-CoV-2 variant first discovered in the United Kingdom is rapidly becoming the dominant species in several countries, doubling every 10 days in the United States, according to new data.
The findings of Nicole L. Washington, PhD, associate director of research at the genomics company Helix, and colleagues were posted to the preprint server Sunday medRxiv. The article has not been peer-reviewed in a scientific journal.
The researchers also found that the transmission speed in the United States of the variant, labeled B.1.1.7, is 30% to 40% higher than that of more common lines.
Although clinical results were initially believed to be similar to other SARS-CoV-2 variants, early reports suggest that infection with the B.1.1.7 variant may increase the risk of death by approximately 30%.
A co-author of the current study, Kristian Andersen, said The New York Times “Nothing in this paper is surprising, but people should see it.”
Andersen, a virologist at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California, added that “we should probably prepare for this to be the predominant line in most places in the United States by March.”
The study of the B.1.1.7 variant last month adds support to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) forecast that it would dominate by March.
“Our study shows the US is on a similar trajectory to other countries where B.1.1.7 quickly became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. “write the researchers. .
The authors point out that the B.1.1.7 variant became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 strain in the UK within a few months of detection.
“Since then, the variant has been increasingly observed in many European countries, including Portugal and Ireland, which, like the UK, observed devastating waves of COVID-19 after B.1.1.7 became dominant,” the authors write.
“Category 5” Storm
The B.1.1.7 variant has likely been spreading between US states since December, they write.
Medscape Medical news reported on Jan. 15 that the B.1.1.7 variant was seen in 76 cases in 12 US states as of Jan. 13, according to an early release from the CDCs Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR).
On Sunday, according to the CDC, there were 690 cases of the B.1.1.7 variant in the US in 33 states.
Washington and colleagues examined more than 500,000 coronavirus test samples from cases across the United States tested at San Mateo, California-based Helix facilities since July.
In the study, they found an inconsistent prevalence of the variant between states. By the last week of January, the researchers estimated the proportion of B.1.1.7 in the U.S. population to be about 2.1% of all COVID-19 cases, although they found it to be about 2% of all COVID-19 cases. in California and about 4.5% of cases in Florida. The authors acknowledge that their data is less robust outside of those two states.
While that may seem like a relatively low frequency, “our estimates show that the growth rate is increasing by at least 35% -45% and doubling every week and a half,” the authors write.
“Because US laboratories only sequence a small subset of SARS-CoV-2 samples, the true sequence diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in this country is still unknown,” they note.
Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said last week that the US is facing a “Category 5” storm with the spread of the B.1.1.7- variant. such as the variants first identified in South Africa and Brazil.
“We’re going to see something like that we haven’t seen in this country yet,” Osterholm said on NBC’s recently Meet the press.
Lead author Nicole L. Washington and many of the co-authors are Helix collaborators. Other co-authors are Illumina collaborators. Three co-authors have a stock in ILMN.
The work was funded by Illumina, Helix, the Innovative Genomics Institute (CYC) and the New Frontiers in Research Fund provided by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CYC).
Marcia Frellick is a freelance journalist based in Chicago. She has previously written for the Chicago Tribune, Science News and Nurse.com and has edited the Chicago Sun-Times, the Cincinnati Enquirer and the St. Cloud (Minnesota) Times. Follow her on Twitter at @mfrellick
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