While the B.1.1.7 variant first identified in the UK is currently relatively rare in the United States, the paper says it doubles every week and a half, similar to what was seen in other countries. The report estimates that this variant is 35-45% more transmissible than strains that appeared in the United States before, and it doubles in the country about every 10 days.
Last month, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention models predicted that the B.1.1.7 variety could become the most common strain in the United States by March. It estimates that the virus is about 50% more transmissible.
“Our study shows that the US is on a similar trajectory to other countries where B.1.1.7 quickly became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant, requiring immediate and decisive action to reduce COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. to minimize, ”researchers wrote in the preprint of the study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed or published.
In addition to groups of cases in California, Florida and Georgia, many B.1.1.7 cases in the United States did not report recent international travel, the report said, suggesting that “significant transmission of the B.1.1.7 variant by the community is already ongoing in the US. “
U.S. labs still only sequence a small subset of coronavirus samples, the paper said, so it’s not clear which variants are circulating in the country. Without “decisive and immediate public health action,” new, more transmissible variants are likely to have devastating consequences for COVID-19 mortality and morbidity in the US within months, “warn the researchers.
Helix President Dr. James Lu told CNN last week that the company had tracked evidence that cases of B.1.1.7 are on the rise, and not just a product of increased genetic sequencing across the country.
“The growth rate here in Florida and Southern California is very similar to the kind of growth we’ve seen before in the UK and Denmark … where B.1.1.7 became the predominant variety quite quickly,” said Lu.
It’s unclear whether the pace of vaccination in the United States will prevent the species from gaining a foothold in places where it isn’t already circulating, he added.
“We are in a race between the vaccine and the new strains,” said Lu.
Dr. Anthony Fauci suggested last week that the US is not vaccinating people fast enough to stay ahead of new variants. That could tone down the vaccine’s attempts to bring down cases, he told CNN. “If the variants and mutations come and become dominant, then that will prevent some of the effects of the vaccine,” he said.
More than 610 cases of the B.1.1.7 variant have been found in 33 states, according to the CDC. Most are located in Florida and California. The first US case was announced on December 29, but the earliest known cases go back earlier. Analysis in the new study suggests that the B.1.1.7 variant has already arrived in the United States in late November 2020.
The species has also been found in at least 80 countries and regions around the world, the World Health Organization said last week.
The United States also summed up five cases in two states of the B.1.351 variant first identified in South Africa, and two cases in one state of the P.1 variant first identified in Brazil .
CNN’s Michael Nedelman and Andrea Diaz contributed to this report.