Patrick Vallance told a press conference that “there is some evidence that there is an increased risk for those who have the new variant.”
He said that for a man in his 60s with the original version of the virus, “the average risk is that for 1,000 infected people, unfortunately, about 10 will die.”
“With the new variant, it is expected that for 1,000 infected people, about 13 or 14 people could die,” he said.
VIDEO: Dr. Fauci about COVID-19 variants around the world
But Vallance stressed that “the evidence is not strong yet” and that more research is needed.
Contrary to that uncertainty, he said, confidence is growing that the variant is more easily passed on than the original coronavirus strain. He said it appears to be between 30% and 70% more transferable.
Maria Van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization’s technical leader on COVID-19, said studies were underway to investigate the transmission and severity of new virus variants.
She said so far “they have not seen an increase in severity,” but more transmission could lead to “an overloaded health care system” and thus more deaths.
UK officials say they are confident that the vaccines approved for use against COVID-19 will be effective against the new strain identified in the country.
But Vallance said scientists are concerned that variants identified in Brazil and South Africa could be more resistant to vaccines, adding that more research needs to be done.
Concerns about newly identified variants have sparked a wave of new travel restrictions around the world. Many countries have closed their borders to travelers from Great Britain and the UK has halted flights from Brazil and South Africa.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said further restrictions could apply.
“Maybe we should go further to protect our borders,” he said.
In Britain, 95,981 deaths occurred among people who tested positive for the coronavirus, the highest confirmed total in Europe.
The UK is currently in a lockdown in an attempt to slow down the latest wave of the coronavirus outbreak. Pubs, restaurants, nightlife and many shops are closed and people have to stay at home for the most part.
The number of new infections is on the decline, but the death rate remains excruciatingly high, averaging over 1,000 per day, and the number of hospitalized patients is 80% higher than at the first peak of the spring pandemic.
Johnson, who has often been accused of making overly optimistic predictions about the coronavirus restrictions being relaxed, sounded bleak.
“We will somehow have to live with coronavirus for quite some time,” he said, adding that “it is an open question” when measures can be relaxed.
“You do have to be very, very careful at this stage,” he said.
Vallance agreed,
“I don’t think this virus is going anywhere,” he said. “It will probably last forever.”
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AP Medical Writer Maria Cheng contributed to this story.
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