ABU DHABI, UAE – When Conor McGregor is involved there is always the risk of exaggeration. When you have a star this big, everything tends to kick it up a notch – including any comments about him or an upcoming fight. But let me say that I have been genuinely looking forward to this moment since late 2016.
Whether this all comes to fruition, only time will tell. But I think in 2021 we’ll finally realize McGregor’s true fighting potential. If you go back to the end of 2016, McGregor was the reigning featherweight and lightweight champion. He had avenged his loss of submission to Nate Diaz. He wasn’t considered the absolute best fighter in the world, but he was on the radar for that honor.
Of course we all know what happened next. McGregor (22-4), who fights Dustin Poirier in a non-title lightweight bout at UFC 257 on Saturday in Abu Dhabi (main ticket at 10 p.m. ET, available here on pay-per-view), staged a lucrative boxing match against Floyd Mayweather in 2017 ran into several legal issues, lost a championship fight to Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2018, didn’t fight at all in 2019, and competed once in 2020 for less than a minute.
And to be honest, none of that is difficult to understand. McGregor rose to unprecedented levels of fame in 2016, and he made money from the Mayweather fight. That match was entertaining and it paid McGregor more than any MMA fight would have, but it was also a farce and a monumental pivot of what he might have accomplished in MMA.
It’s wild to think: McGregor has been in the UFC since 2013 and you could say he’s only competed twice in his most natural weight class. Its featherweight cut was manageable but bold. And he’s not even close to the average welterweight size. McGregor is a lightweight, and we didn’t see him compete there until 2016, when he won the belt from Eddie Alvarez, and 2018, when he failed to win it back against Nurmagomedov.
See, we know who McGregor is as a celebrity and public figure. He has had a clear impact on the whole martial arts industry, as well as the sports media industry as a whole. And we also know a lot about him as a fighter. We know he is extremely talented. We know he was the UFC’s first “champion”. We know he’s good, even great.
But we don’t know how great he is. That is the part that remains to be defined. If he had never strayed into the world of a “money fight” with Mayweather and then more or less disappeared from the competition, what could he have done? Defended the lightweight championship several times? Challenged for a third band? Maybe beaten Nurmagomedov under different circumstances, if he had maintained all of 2016’s momentum?
I really hope we find out. McGregor has said repeatedly that he is committed to this 155lb frame and wants to be active in 2021. We know McGregor is a great fighter. I want to know this year exactly how great he can be.
By the numbers
6: Knockouts at lightweight for Poirier, taking him third in division history, one behind Melvin Guillard and Edson Barboza.
91: Percentage of McGregor wins he finished with finishes (19 knockouts and one entry in 22 wins).
1.95: Cage knockdowns per 15 minutes for McGregor, the eighth highest percentage in UFC history.
6.45: Significant strikes landed per minute in the Octagon by Poirier, the third most in UFC lightweight history, behind only Justin Gaethje’s 7.46 and TJ Grant’s 6.83.
8: Pay-per-view events that McGregor has been headlining since 2015, including this one. Only Daniel Cormier (9) has done it more. This will be the fourth McGregor PPV main event to be a non-title fight, the most of anyone in the last 10 years.
Sources: ESPN Stats and Information and UFC Stats
A look back
Since …
Five to five
Dustin Poirier’s most recent results
Win: Dan Hooker (UD, June 27, 2020; watch ESPN +)
Loss: Khabib Nurmagomedov (Sub3, Sept 7, 2019; watch on ESPN +)
Win: Max Holloway (UD, April 13, 2019; watch on ESPN +)
Victory: Eddie Alvarez (TKO2, July 28, 2018)
Victory: Justin Gaethje (TKO4, April 14, 2018)
The most recent results from Conor McGregor
Victory: Donald Cerrone (TKO1, Jan 18, 2020; watch ESPN +)
Loss: Khabib Nurmagomedov (Sub4, Oct 6, 2018; watch on ESPN +)
Victory: Eddie Alvarez (TKO2, Nov 12, 2016; watch on ESPN +)
Win: Nate Diaz (MD, August 20, 2016; watch ESPN +)
Loss: Nate Diaz (Sub2, March 5, 2016; watch on ESPN +)
Dom & Gil’s film study
Dominick Cruz on why Poirier-McGregor 1 went the way he did:
Gilbert Melendez on how Poirier-McGregor 2 can go different:
And the winner is …
“I think Poirier will try to fight smart and win a mixed martial arts fight, not make it a stand-up battle or a wrestling fight,” said UFC Hall of Famer Urijah Faber. “Conor looks super impressive in terms of his athleticism. Looks like he’s really taking it seriously. I’m leaning back on Conor’s side.”
Faber is one of the many fighters and coaches who have weighed in with analysis and predictions. Look what they had to say here.
ESPN MMA analyst Gilbert Melendez, the two-time Strikeforce Lightweight Champion and former WEC Lightweight Champion, takes a deeper dive into the fight breakdown. His premise: that this is a rematch.
“McGregor got the best of Poirier years ago,” Melendez writes, “and whatever happens will weigh heavily on the mindset of both fighters.”
How to watch the fights
Check out the prelims on ESPN or ESPN +: Download the ESPN app | WatchESPN | TV
Don’t have ESPN? Get instant access.
Don’t have ESPN + for the prelims and PPV? Get it here.
Did you buy the fight on your phone and want to stream on your TV? Read how here.
There is also FightCenter, which provides live updates for every UFC card.
Saturday’s fight card
PPV (via ESPN +), 10 p.m. ET
Dustin Poirier v Conor McGregor | Lightweight
Dan Hooker v Michael Chandler | Lightweight
Jessica Eye v Joanne Calderwood | Flyweight for ladies
Andrew Sanchez v Makhmud Muradov | Middleweight
Marina Rodriguez v Amanda Ribas | Straw weight
ESPN / ESPN +, 8 p.m. ET
Matt Frevola v Arman Tsarukyan | Lightweight
Brad Tavares v Antonio Carlos Junior | Middleweight
Julianna Pena v Sara McMann | Bantam weight for women
Khalil Rountree Jr. Marcin Prachnio | Light heavyweight
ESPN +, 7 p.m. ET
Movsar Evloev v Nik Lentz | Catchweight (150 lb)
Amir Albazi v Zhalgas Zhumagulov | Flyweight for men
Co-main event raises the curtain for a champion
Michael Chandler, the former Bellator lightweight champion, will make his Octagon debut in the UFC 257 co-main event, facing Dan Hooker, who is No. 6 in the ESPN lightweight rankings. Chandler is number 7.
Chandler will be the ninth former Bellator champion to advance to the UFC, with the previous eight going 5-3 in their debut. Those who won: Alexander Volkov, Lyman Good, Ben Askren, Will Brooks, and Zach Makovsky. Those Who Lost: Hector Lombard, Eddie Alvarez, and Joe Soto.
Alvarez is the only former Bellator champion to win a UFC title.
Some remarkable numbers – or why the judges might not even have to bother to take a seat on Cageside: Chandler has achieved finishes in 76% of his career fights (nine knockouts and seven entries in 21 wins), and Hooker’s finish percentage is 85% (10 knockouts and seven entries in 20 wins).
Two more things to know (from ESPN Stats & Information)
1. Competing against 2019 title challenger Jessica Eye, Joanne Calderwood has received 444 major strikes in her UFC career, the third most in women’s flyweight history. Calderwood is # 5 in the ESPN rankings for the 125-pound division.
2. Opening the main card is a match between Brazilian top weights Marina Rodriguez, who is number 8 in the ESPN rankings with 115 pounds, and Amanda Ribas, who is 4-0 in the Octagon. Rodriguez comes off her first defeat of her career, a split-decision loss to former champion Carla Esparza in July. Ribas has had seven of her ten wins in her career (four entries, three knockouts).
ESPN’s Jeff Wagenheim contributed to this fight preview.