Typhoon Surigae has been slowly moving towards the Philippines since developing earlier this week, but the storm has intensified rapidly over the past 24 hours.
Known locally in the Philippines as Typhoon Bising, Surigae has developed from a tropical storm Thursday to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 135 mph (215 kph).
This rapid intensification has occurred because of the ideal conditions for hurricane / typhoon development: wind shear, or the change of wind speed and direction with altitude in the atmosphere, has been very low. High wind shear can storm if it rips to pieces, but low shear force allows them to feed on the extremely warm water and thrive in a powerful storm.
The sustained low shear force and excellent outflow allow Surigae to thrive in the warm water that is a few degrees above normal at this time of year. It’s even possible that Surigae could reach super typhoon (150+ mph winds, 240+ kph) status the next day or two.
The forecast is shifting closer to the Philippines
Earlier in the week, the projections for Surigae had to run west towards the Philippines before turning northwest and north, easily missing the Philippines to the east. However, in recent days, several weather forecast models have shown a trend that the storm would move closer to the central Philippines.
On this current trajectory, the strongest winds over 100 mph (160 kph) and the worst rainfall would remain offshore, but the storm would pass close enough to bring tropical gale force winds (39-73 mph, 63-117 kph ). ) and four to eight inches (100-200 mm) of rain.
This rain and wind can be enough to cause local flooding, minor property damage and power outages. PAGASA has already issued warnings as conditions are expected to deteriorate on Sunday. If the westbound trend continues, the impact will worsen and additional warnings will be issued.
Regardless of the exact track, a storm of this magnitude will generate massive surf, and mariners in the region are advised to exercise caution.
Even if Surigae stays offshore this weekend, it will have to be watched until next week as it slowly moves northwest and north.
How much the storm curves will determine the impact on northeastern parts of Luzon. Some weather forecasting models show that the storm will also get extremely close to this part of the Philippine coast on Tuesday and Wednesday, but other models and official forecasts remain further offshore with limited impact. Time will tell.