Turn the corner on Covid

That said, downgrading the pandemic to 2020 will require some changes. The virus is likely to become endemic, meaning it will continue to circulate, but at a much lower level than the epidemic. If we’re careful, the following fall could look like a particularly intense flu season in which the vaccines don’t mix well. Most of the activities that Americans enjoy will resume, although some require precautions.

That starts with changes in the way people go to work. It should be frowned upon for going to work sick and trying to “brave” a cold. Testing for flu and Covid will be widespread with home tests. Many people may still prefer to wear masks in public places, but there is no need to. We will pay more attention to indoor ventilation and congestion in confined spaces.

These steps have benefits beyond Covid. They will also slow the spread of other respiratory infections, including the flu, which takes a huge toll every year. According to estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the flu caused more than 40 million symptomatic illnesses and 650,000 hospitalizations in the 2018-2019 season. A 2018 study in the journal Vaccine estimated the economic damage, including decreased productivity, at $ 11.2 billion per year. That figure may be conservative; some models say the burden is up to $ 87 billion annually.

Next year’s priorities will be to distribute vaccines on a large scale, hopefully all Americans will be eligible by spring as we continue to gather information on safety and benefits. It will also be essential to provide easy access to vaccination – preparing drug stores to offer the Covid vaccine, such as flu shots. Vaccination of a high percentage of the most vulnerable populations would greatly reduce the Covid risk. The benefits will be even greater if, as hoped, vaccines not only reduce the risk of severe symptoms but also reduce the likelihood of infection and spread.

The coming year will be an adjustment to a new normal. Society won’t return to the 2019 strategy for dealing with respiratory pathogens, but that’s not a bad thing. The response to a pandemic was plagued by a vociferous minority who rejected Covid’s risks and took measures like masks. That attitude of defiance will have to change for an appearance of normal to return in 2021. But with sensible measures, drugs and vaccines, Covid can be turned into a manageable risk.

Dr. Gottlieb is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and was a Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, 2017-19. He serves on the boards of Pfizer and Illumina and is a partner in the venture capital firm New Enterprise Associates.