The Mets are considering whether to invest in another major item this low season or add multiple players to deepen the quality of the overall roster.
The main piece can’t be a free agent catcher JT Realmuto unless they plan to turn James McCann into a $ 40 million backup. The Mets have not been linked in recent trade talks for Nolan Arenado or Kris Bryant.
Then Trevor Bauer remains.
Or not. Steve Cohen has made his billions as an expert in risk assessment. For example, the decision could be that the Mets could have the same number of victories by, say, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Brad Hand, taking on a much less financial commitment than Bauer on his own.
Or does Cohen see this: Jacob deGrom, Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman and David Peterson with Noah Syndergaard in the wings? The Nationals won the World Series in 2019 with a rotation that looked like this, and arguably less offense and bullpen than the Mets currently own.
However, almost any Bauer deal would push the Mets above the $ 210 million luxury tax threshold, and Cohen has indicated that he wants to stay below that number by 2021. Plus, since Bauer got the qualifying offer from the Reds and rejected it, Mets would lose their runner-up in June’s draw and $ 500,000 in international closing money if they signed it. And the Mets are determined to try to supplement their farming system.
This leads to signs that the Mets are happy to have added the central player they so longed for in Francisco Lindor. No one would be surprised if one day in spring training there was a warning before a press conference to announce Lindor’s new $ 300 million extension and that’s the significant financial outlay this year. Between Lindor, Carrasco, McCann, Trevor May, the retention of Stroman, and a few more useful pieces or two, the Mets under Cohen can trumpet a strong first off-season, albeit with the disturbing revelations that led to the new GM Jared being fired Porter.
Still, Bauer provokes. It doesn’t escape me that when Sandy Alderson was hired as team president he said he didn’t mind hissing when asked about the daring Bauer. After all, Alderson was the man who oversaw the Bash Brothers of Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire, Rickey Henderson, and Dennis Eckersley three decades ago. Bauer has a huge social media presence. Sometimes it has sparked controversy. You can expect more as Bauer is committed to building his brand. But in doing this, the secondary benefit is that he also helps increase interest in baseball and potentially bring fans who are not aligned with a team to a new organization.
But at what price will a team see if all of this is true? With what risk?
The top players in the market, despite COVID-19, have been treated well so far. Maybe that’s not true with Bauer. Due to a lack of continued excellence or personality concerns.
But until Bauer doesn’t get the big payout – more than Max Scherzer’s seven years at $ 210 million, maybe north of Stephen Strasburg’s seven years at $ 245 million – I’ll believe it remains both a goal of his camp and a possibility. . A few years ago, Bryce Harper faced a short commitment, but an annual record value from the Dodgers or less per year, but a lot more money from the Phillies. Like most players, Harper took the biggest guarantee: $ 330 million over 13 years.
Bauer may well be facing the same puzzle, in part because the Dodgers are at least lurking for him. And Bauer is rare (perhaps unique). He believes so strongly in his training methods that he has spoken of a willingness to go short or even year after year and just get back on the market. Japanese ace Tomoyuki Sugano recently re-signed with the Yomiuri Giants for four years, but opting out after each season to keep his right to come to MLB earlier. Bauer could ask for something similar – a shorter run for less overall money, but with a chance to leave to chase the longer money annually if he so wishes.
But I assume taking less overall money is a non-starter unless the mean value surpasses Gerrit Cole’s current record of $ 36 million a year. Would a team, say, go for $ 160 million for the 2020 NL Cy Young winner for four years?
The Dodgers? The Blue Jays? I keep wondering about the Twins. They’ve been chasing high-end startups like Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler for the past few years without securing them. Their head of the baseball operations, Derek Falvey, had Bauer in Cleveland and knows all the techniques Bauer embraced that brought animus early in his Indians, have now become mainstream, and that Bauer had a willing helpfulness and a positive impact on starters like Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger.
When relationships matter (and they normally do), Twins GM Thad Levine and one of Bauer’s agents, Jon Fetterolf, were co-captains of the 1993 Haverford College baseball team – although the 1992 team captain, Dodgers director Josh Byrnes, even closer to Fetterolf. Yes, always keep an eye out for the Dodgers.
But should we watch the Mets? Cohen clearly has the money. Does he want the risk?