The pandemic travel crisis that hit tourism-dependent economies may have only just begun.
Tourist destinations from Thailand to Iceland had hoped that Covid-19 vaccines would enable countries to reopen their borders and spur much-needed recovery in 2021. With vaccine rollouts slowing in places and new strains of viruses emerging, it seems more likely that international travel could stall for years.
After stating that 2020 was the worst year on record for tourism, with a billion fewer international arrivals, the United Nations World Tourism Organization says the outlook for a recovery in 2021 has deteriorated. In October, 79% of experts polled by the agency believed that a recovery was possible by 2021. Only 50% said they believed that in January, and about 41% did not think travel would reach pre-pandemic levels until 2024 or beyond.
James Sowane, who runs a transportation company catering to tourists in Fiji, called a staff meeting earlier this month and told employees to look for other jobs. He recently took advantage of a government support program and had cut back some of the laid-off workers, optimistic that vaccines could trigger a travel recovery as early as April.
But now Mr. Sowane doesn’t think tourists will return until next year, and he and his wife can’t afford to keep paying wages at their company, Pacific Destinations Fiji. He borrows from his bank to keep some core employees.