Tornado warnings issued in central Tennessee days after previous storms in the south

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On the radar late Saturday afternoon, the radar showed two tornadoes in central Tennessee, about 80 miles southwest of Nashville – one near Linden and the other just east of Lexington. Multiple tornado warnings were in effect in the area, with reports of power lines and trees downed, along with structural damage.

The National Weather Service had previously issued a tornado watch until 10 p.m. ET for parts of Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee. A tornado watch was also set in motion until midnight ET for parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas, including cities like Little Rock and Shreveport.

Storms that develop during the afternoon and evening can produce several tornadoes, some of which can become intense. In addition, damaging winds with gusts as high as 75 mph are likely, according to the weather service’s Storm Prediction Center, along with golf ball to baseball-sized hail.

This weekend’s forecast calls for damaging winds, hail and even tornadoes in some of the same locations just hit by tornadoes and damaging winds less than 48 hours ago. Storms on Saturday could make clean-up in those locations more difficult.

“All hazards are possible, including very large hail, significant damaging winds and a few strong tornadoes,” said the Storm Forecasting Center.
“The main takeaway is that Saturday can become a busy day across the region with potential flooding and severe weather,” said the Memphis Weather Office.

Heavy storms on Saturday

The Storm Prediction Center says there is an “increased risk” – a level 3 out of 5 – of severe storms affecting parts of Arkansas, Tennessee and Mississippi. There is a lower risk from central Illinois through North Texas and North Georgia on Saturday to Saturday nights.

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Although some rain and thunderstorms are expected during the day, the severe weather threat will be greatest on Saturday evening and at night through Sunday.

Current model guidelines suggest a series of Saturday night thunderstorms stretching from the Ohio River Valley to near the Gulf Coast. Wind and hail will be the main threats, but tornadoes are expected with some storms, especially in the mid-south.

“Like the last few events, these warm fronts have been pretty efficient rain producers and this particular one will be no exception,” said the Memphis Weather Service office.

The potential for flash flooding on Saturday stretches from the Arkansas-Louisiana-Texas region to West Virginia due to the potential risk of excessive rainfall.

The weather service’s Weather Prediction Center says there are likely to be scattered flash floods in the middle of the Tennessee Valley, as the latest soil moisture analysis shows that “much of the risk area is above the 98th percentile (extremely saturated).”

Sunday storms are shifting to the east

On Sunday, the storm system is expected to track further east, closer to the Atlantic coast. Nearly 60 million people are at risk from severe storms from Delaware to Georgia.

“Damaging winds will be the main threat, but a few tornadoes and some hail will also be possible before the front heads for shore in the evening,” the Storm Prediction Center said of Sunday’s threat.

The forecast calls for a “low risk” level 2 out of 5 for severe storms in cities such as Washington, DC, Baltimore, Charlotte and Atlanta. There is an “increased risk” level 3 out of 5 for Richmond and Norfolk, Virginia. Temperatures will be in the 70’s and 80’s and this warm, moderately humid environment helps with thunderstorms.

Another concern for Sunday is flooding. Several states have had several days of rain in the past week, leading to an already saturated soil. Widespread rainfall of 2-4 inches is expected through Monday, with locally higher amounts possible in the mid-south.

The greatest risk of flooding this weekend is in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi and Tennessee.

Another concern is along the Gulf Coast. As of Tuesday, parts of Louisiana and Mississippi have received more than 20 inches of rain single pockets of 10-14 inches through coastal parishes south of metro New Orleans. Since the soil is already very saturated, it won’t need much rain on Sundays to cause flooding.

CNN’s Jackson Dill contributed to this report.

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