SEOUL, South Korea (AP) – Fresh off a stop in Tokyo, President Joe Biden’s top diplomat and chief of defense traveled to South Korea on Wednesday, a day after North Korea made sure it got their attention through the United To warn states “to refrain from stench” amid deadlocked nuclear negotiations.
How to get North Korea back up and running will be a major concern when Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin meet with South Korean officials this week.
It’s been more than two years since nuclear talks came to a halt, and some experts say the United States and its allies will have to settle for a deal that would freeze North Korea’s nuclear program in exchange for relaxed sanctions – and possibly leave Pyongyang’s already manufactured nuclear weapons in place.
Austin and Blinken will meet their South Korean counterparts on Wednesday for separate talks and a joint “two plus two” meeting on Thursday, the first contact between the two countries in five years.
South Korea is the second leg of their regional tour that aims to strengthen America’s Asian alliances to better deal with the growing challenges of China and North Korea. While in Tokyo on Tuesday, they joined forces with Japanese officials to criticize China’s “coercion and aggression” and reaffirm their commitment to rid North Korea of all its nuclear bombs.
US-led diplomacy on the latter topic has been in limbo since a February 2019 summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un collapsed over disputes over US-led sanctions. Kim has since threatened to expand his nuclear arsenal in protest at what he called US hostility.
On Tuesday, Kim’s sister and a senior official, Kim Yo Jong, pummeled the United States over ongoing military exercises with South Korea, which North Korea sees as an invasion rehearsal.
“We are taking this opportunity to warn the new US administration,” Kim Yo Jong said in a statement. “If it wants to sleep in peace for the next four years, it better refrain from causing stink on the first step.”
Some experts say Kim Yo Jong’s statement is a push tactic and Pyongyang may try to incite hostility with weapons tests to increase its influence in future negotiations with Washington.
When asked about Kim Yo Jong’s statement at a press conference in Tokyo, Blinken said he was familiar with the comments and more interested in hearing from allies and partners.
Blinken said Washington has contacted North Korea through various channels as of mid-February, but no response has been received. He said the Biden administration is looking forward to finalizing North Korea’s policy review in the coming weeks, looking at both possible “additional pressure measures” and “diplomatic avenues.”
Shim Beomchul, an analyst with the Seoul-based Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, said he expects the Biden government to negotiate a deal with North Korea resembling a 2015 deal that froze Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. While the United States is unlikely to give up its long-term commitment to denuclearize North Korea, turning the country’s nuclear capabilities back to zero is not a realistic short-term diplomatic goal, he said.
Trump blew up that 2015 Obama administration deal in favor of what he called maximum pressure against Iran, and the Biden administration is trying to revive it.
In a 2018 New York Times op-ed, Blinken, then general manager of the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement, argued that the best deal the US could make with North Korea “ will more than likely look like some Barack Obama reached out with Iran. He said an interim agreement would “provide time to negotiate a more comprehensive agreement, including a meticulously designed roadmap that requires continued diplomacy. That is the approach Mr. Obama has taken with Iran.”
Other experts say an Iran-style deal won’t work for North Korea. Iran hasn’t built a single bomb, but North Korea has already made dozens. They say North Korea, which has a history of derailing agreements with its vehement rejection of verification processes, will find no reason to denuclearize when some of its most painful sanctions are lifted.
“Anyone can easily say that (settle for) a nuclear freeze would allow North Korea to preserve its existing nuclear weapons. But I ask them what other options they have ”to achieve the denuclearization of North Korea, said Kim Yeol Soo, an analyst with the Korea Institute for Military Affairs in South Korea.
Another possible topic during the talks between the US and South Korea is whether South Korea should actively participate in US-led efforts to curb China’s rising power in the region.
South Korea is a long-standing US ally and is home to approximately 28,500 US troops. But its economy relies heavily on trade with China, making it difficult to take a move that is considered provocative to its largest trading partner. When South Korea gave the United States permission to install an anti-North Korean missile defense shield on its territory in 2017, it faced economic retaliation from China, which sees the system’s radar as a security threat.
South Korean Defense Secretary Suh Wook told lawmakers on Tuesday that the US had not formally proposed that South Korea join an expanded format of the so-called “Quad” group that includes the United States, Japan, Australia and India. , and that the Americans are unlikely to make such a proposal during this week’s talks.
China calls the Quad an attempt to contain its ambitions.
Kim Yeol Soo said the allies will likely discuss Seoul joining an expanded Quad format known as the Quad Plus, though they will never announce it publicly to avoid angering China. Kim said it would be “wise” for South Korea to join the Quad Plus to express his views clearly and not be sidelined in business with Seoul.
Associated Press writer Kim Tong-hyung contributed to this report.