Tired Israelis go to the polls for the fourth election in two years

The latest polls over the weekend indicate that Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party is comfortably on top, but also shows potential key allies without the necessary public backing to make the formation of a new government easy. Like the previous three games, this one is mainly seen as a national referendum on the country’s longest-serving prime minister.
The past twelve months have been arguably the most eventful of Netanyahu’s 15 years as Israel’s leader. Over the summer, he appeared to be on the verge of annexing large swaths of the occupied West Bank after receiving the green light from President Donald Trump and his “Peace to Prosperity” proposal. Those plans were suddenly shelved in exchange for a striking normalization agreement with the United Arab Emirates, followed quickly by similar agreements, known as the Abraham Accords, with three other Arab states.

As for the coronavirus pandemic, Netanyahu, like many other leaders, struggled to strike a balance between public health and the economic imperatives, though Israel’s position, by taking a seemingly winning bet on getting vaccinations , seems stronger than most in terms of the origins of the pandemic.

On the other side of the ledger, his bribery, fraud and breach of trust lawsuit is now formally underway. He filed his innocent plea last month and insists it’s all a media-led witch hunt fueled by the left’s inability to beat him in the polls.

This time, the prime minister is facing a particularly wide range of opponents, and polls suggest that as many as 13 parties could cross the electoral threshold and secure representation in the Knesset with 120 seats.

Centrist Yair Lapid, who once served as Netanyahu’s finance minister and was a leading TV news anchor before entering politics with his Yesh Atid (There is a Future) party in 2012, is on track to finish a clear second , according to all polls.

Two other key figures in this election are former Defense Secretary Naftali Bennett, leader of the Yamina party, and Gideon Saar, leader of New Hope. Both are right wingers, viewed as ideologically aligned with Netanyahu, but with one clear distinction between them. Saar, like Lapid, has ruled out joining the Likud leader in any government after the election; Bennett has been more careful about what he would do, making him the potential kingmaker of this election.

Israeli governments are always coalition arrangements, so smaller parties can have a decisive impact. Netanyahu will seek strong performances from the two main religious parties representing the ultra-Orthodox communities – both say they will remain an ally of Likud after the election. In addition, the Israeli leader can trust that he has the support of the far-right party for religious Zionism. Opinion polls show that this group – including followers of the extremist rabbi Meir Kahane, whose own political party was banned from the Knesset in the 1980s for racism – is on track to cross the electoral threshold and win four or even five seats.

The election took place in December when parliament failed to agree on a budget, ending a seven-month power-sharing arrangement between Netanyahu and his main rival in the three previous elections, Benny Gantz. The former army chief emerged from the unification agreement, struck during the first wave of increasing coronavirus infections, and was bitterly disillusioned with his decision to join the government.
Netanyahu credits himself with bringing Israel back to life.  Now he hopes his Covid-19 campaign will save his political future

“I never believed Netanyahu, but I was willing to work with him for the good of the country,” Gantz said after the government collapse, adding later, “I shook the hand of a serial pledge-breaker. shook his hand because the State of Israel was at war [with the coronavirus], and above all I am a soldier. I was wrong.”

Polls suggest Gantz will pay a high political price on Tuesday, while his Blue and White party is only just on its way back to parliament. If it crosses the threshold, Blue and White will be natural allies of Lapid in an anti-Netanyahu bloc, as will the center-left and left-wing parties, Labor and Meretz, assuming they too receive adequate support. Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu – with his base in the Russian emigration community and a campaign aimed at a strong secular platform against Shabbat restrictions on shopping and public transport – is also strongly opposed to keeping the prime minister in office.

One of the most striking aspects of this election campaign is Netanyahu’s attempts to gain support among Israel’s Arab voters. In previous campaigns he has been accused of trying to suppress their voice; on election day in 2015, he even made a video claiming that Arab voters were “moving en masse to polling stations” – to motivate his Likud base to vote. This time, however, he has produced campaign material with voters expressing their support in Arabic for “Abu Yair,” Yair’s father, who praised his achievements on coronavirus vaccines. Privately, lawmakers from Arab parties admit the campaign has been effective.

The Joint List, an alliance of three predominantly Arab parties committed to ousting Netanyahu, appears to be gaining eight seats in the region. The United Arab List, which split from the Joint List in February, hopes to cross the electoral threshold with four seats. Its leader Mansour Abbas has taken a quirky stance in this campaign, suggesting that he could offer the prime minister some form of support in coalition talks in exchange for financial pledges that would benefit the country’s 20% Arab minority.

The voting closes at 10 p.m. (4 p.m. ET). TV networks publish projected results based on exit polls almost immediately, but it will likely take several days for the final results to be known. Given that several parties have studied close to the electoral threshold, it is quite possible that some of them will not be able to secure seats after all votes have been counted, which in turn could have a major impact on the opportunities that exist for the major parties. parties because they want to build a coalition of at least 61 seats.

And if the election doesn’t produce a viable coalition, Israelis could trudge back to the polls by the end of the year.

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