The Green Bay Packers need to pressure Tom Brady to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC title game, making Sunday an ideal time to unleash the up-and-coming star-pass-rusher of the defense.
Rashan Gary has a real chance of being an X factor player for the Packers against Brady.
As of week 16, Gary has been ranked second among edge rushers in total pressure (14, despite playing in only three out of possible four games) and first in pass-rushing productivity, according to Pro Football Focus. Perhaps its efficiency as a rusher is the result of fewer snapshots and the opportunities it offers to be a third edge rusher behind two established startups. Or maybe Gary could have even more of an impact if he’s more on the pitch.
In the past three games, Gary has just 52 pass-rushing snaps. About once every three pass-rushing snaps, he’s applied a pressure.
The Packers could certainly use a repeat of that ratio against Brady on Sunday.
Interior pressure has long been the best way to combat Brady, who is arguably the best ever at performing subtle moves in the bag to avoid edge rushers, create space and find throwing strips. Collapsing the pocket and limiting his ability to get into the pocket will be crucial, and the Packers have two players – Kenny Clark and Za’Darius Smith – who are able to create the necessary disturbance within.
Edge pressure cannot be discounted, however, even against Brady. Think back to the 2015 AFC title game. The Denver Broncos’ pass rush bruised and battered Brady, fired him four times and hit him 17 times. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware delivered three sacks and 11 hits as edge rushers, and the Patriots scored just 18 runs despite Brady throwing 56 times. He finished with two interceptions and a compass score of 56.4, one of his worst post-season performances.
Hitting Brady 17 times may not be realistic on Sunday, but the Packers’ pass rush has a chance to master the game, much like the Broncos did five years ago.
Gary, Clark, Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith can be a formidable foursome as rushers. This group has to play a great game on Sunday and it could certainly benefit Mike Pettine’s defense to give Gary more chances to disrupt from multiple pass-rush angles, especially on clear pass-downs when Za’Darius Smith can get in kick. He’s just been too effective at such an important job to play a part in the biggest game of the season.
Keep in mind that this isn’t just a three-game sample size from Gary. Consider this great stat from PFF:
Highest pressure% since week 10:
1. Rashan Gary – 18.7%
2. Aaron Donald – 18.6% pic.twitter.com/HEopntahaQ– PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) January 23, 2021
In the Packers’ first encounter against the Buccaneers, Gary played just 17 snaps in total and only rushed 10 times. He applied one of the Packers’ six pressures, but he had not yet become a trusted member of the pass rush. His jump in the second year had just slowed.
In week 10, Gary had his second season breakout game, in which he was under pressure against the Jacksonville Jaguars seven times. Ever since, he’s been per-snap as disruptive as Aaron Donald, creating a mind-blowing progression for a talented young player who takes on a Super Bowl contender in real time.
In his last two home games, Gary has rushed 35 times and pressured 13 times. Veteran Preston Smith may find ways to influence play in other ways, but he’s only got 28 total hit on 421 pass-rushing snaps across 17 games.
The Packers are at the door of the Super Bowl, but a football giant gets in their way. According to Brady, the Packers need the best of themselves on the field. And Rashan Gary has undoubtedly emerged as one of their best, especially in terms of the one thing they need most to beat Brady the Bucs. Pressure.
It’s time to unleash No. 52 in the NFC title game.