This is how Top Polluter China plans to be greener by 2025

Photographer: Qilai Shen / Bloomberg

China’s journey to carbon neutrality took its first big step on Friday when the country announced targets to slow emissions over the next five years.

The country plans to reduce CO2 emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 18% by 2025, and energy consumption per unit of GDP by 13.5%, Prime Minister Li Keqiang said Friday at the opening of the National People’s Congress. It also plans to boost non-fossil fuels up to 20% of energy consumption by then, and will develop an action plan this year to explain how it aims for peak emissions by 2030.

Rising renewable energy sources

China is increasing the share of its energy it gets from carbon-free sources

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

At the same time, China plans to continue to increase domestic production of fossil fuels such as coal and oil to improve energy security, a major concern for the world’s largest importer of raw materials. And it plans to continue to develop nuclear power after the industry’s targets have not been met for the past five years.

Li’s speech and the country’s 14th Five-Year Plan, which will run from 2021 to 2025, are Beijing’s first strategic blueprint since September, when Xi Jinping set a goal of achieving zero net emissions by 2060.

Read here how China has set a conservative growth target.

Here’s how it can affect some key energy and climate sectors:

Energy efficiency

China began industrializing its economy more than a century after countries like the US and the UK, so energy consumption continues to grow strongly as others have peaked or plateaued. Beijing did not want to slow growth by limiting energy consumption, but instead focused on using it more efficiently.

Greenhouse gas Goliath

China was responsible for more than 30% of global CO2 emissions last year

Source: Robbie Andrew and Global Carbon Project

The new target to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP by 13.5% is slightly below the 15% target set by the country in its latest five-year plan. China outperformed that target, reducing energy intensity by about 18% in the 2016-2020 period. State Grid Corp. or China, the utility giant of the country, earlier this week indicated that over the next five years there will be more focus on energy efficiency and demand-side reforms, saying they are a cheaper solution than adding new energy supplies.

Carbon emissions

As with energy consumption, China’s approach to emissions was to reduce intensity rather than setting a general goal. The 18% reduction target for the next five years is the same level as the target and successfully achieved in the previous plan.

Losing intensity

China wants to continue to emit less carbon per unit of GDP it produces

Source: International Energy Agency

But as GDP continues to grow, emissions have also risen, with China spitting out 9.8 billion tons of carbon in 2019, nearly 29% of the world total, according to data from BP Plc. Climate experts say China should set an absolute ceiling, with the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research saying it must be 8.75 billion tons by 2025 to reach the linear path to the 2060 carbon neutrality goal.

Coal

Coal is the most polluting fossil fuel, and China mines and burns half of the world’s supply. Beijing has managed to reduce the share of coal in its energy mix in recent years, but it has now that total energy consumption has risen, meaning that the amount of coal burned has not changed much since early 2010.

Reduce dependence on coal

China exceeded its goal of reducing coal’s share of its energy mix

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

This trend is likely to continue in the next five-year plan. Li said China will continue to promote the clean and efficient use of the fuel while taking a big step to develop new energy sources. And the country will continue to build coal, oil and gas production systems. The country’s coal industry said earlier this week that it plans to increase production by 2025, and total consumption will be light at the end of the period higher than in 2020.

Clean energy

China’s target of achieving 20% ​​of its energy needs from non-fossil fuels by 2025 is faster than a previous target of reaching that limit by 2030, and it illustrates the tremendous success the country has had. installations of solar and wind capacity in recent years. Over the next five years, the country will continue to “efficiently” develop those resources and promote hydrogen, pumped hydropower and energy storage.

Renewable energy roars

The Chinese solar and wind capacity is expected to increase strongly in the coming years

Source: BloombergNEF forecasts

Li also reiterated China’s support for nuclear power, after falling well short of the goal of the latest five-year plan to have 58 gigawatts of power by 2020, and just under 50 instead. increase the atomic splitting energy by 40% to 70 gigawatts.

Electrification