The Yankees have put together a rotation. Or a jigsaw puzzle.
They now have the kind of starting pitching that wins in the postseason. Or the kind of physical histories that can undermine its achievement.
Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon and Luis Severino could form one of the top Nos. 2-4 starter groups in the majors on August 1. Or the Yanks could be chasing starters by the July 31 trade deadline, as Kluber’s 2020 starts plus Taillon’s and Severino’s come to one – for one total inning.
If beauty is in the eye of the beholder, then you can see the high ceiling built by the Yankees – or just all the flaws.
In 2018, Kluber, Taillon and Severino combined to go 53-26 with a 3.15 ERA in 97 starts. Kluber has since booked eight starts, only one inning at a time last year. Taillon made seven last year, none. Severino has made five (two in the playoffs), none last year.
The Yankee trend of doubling starting talent instead of more confident innings and health repeated on Sunday as they completed a four-prospect trade to the Pirates for Taillon, who missed last season after Tommy John’s surgery.
Separately, the Yankees made the kind of trade that a deep farm system contender can make with a rebuilding club. It was like what the Padres did earlier this month, including with Pittsburgh, to get their hands on another starter, Joe Musgrove, who traded good amounts, but not overwhelming quality. There is a Yankee risk in the prospect bundle, in particular that a few teams really like Miguel Yajure for showing pitchability at such a young age (22) and Roasny Castillo is the kind of bigarm lottery ticket that makes its way to these types. of deals.
The Yanks had been trying to get Musgrove and Taillon as a package for a few months. But Pittsburgh believed it could be better apart. So the Yanks just brought in the starter that costs less ($ 2.25 million this year) and offers more in power. Taillon, when he was last healthy for a full season, showed the promise that made him second pick of the 2010 draft between Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. He was 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA over 32 starts in 2018.
But this is not an isolated trade. We know that Taillon is returning from the Tommy John operation, as has Severino, and Jordan Montgomery has made 11 Major League-starts since his Tommy John operation in June 2018. Kluber returns from tearing a shoulder muscle last year. Domingo German made his last Major League appearance on September 18, 2019, before being suspended under the MLB domestic violence protocols. Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt have 40² / ₃ Major League innings together.
That’s a strong inventory of talent. But under the best of circumstances, it’s hard to figure out how to get through a 162-game season in the 1,450 Major League innings without sacrificing capability or burning out a bullpen. Do it now a year after a 60-game pandemic season, when no pitcher approached his normal workload and there was no minor league season. Get it now with this group of Yankee starters with Michael King thrown in for more depth. The line between awesome and terrifying is fine.
The Yankees will not get Severino back until a few months after the start of the season and have no good feelings about bulk innings from anyone other than Gerrit Cole. It will take massaging to find respite with six man rotations and skipping turns to avoid overloading the non-Coles – the jigsaw puzzle.
In 2019, the Yankees won 103 games with only one starter (Masahiro Tanaka) to qualify for the ERA title in 182 innings. JA Happ had 161 ¹ / ₃, James Paxton 150 ² / ₃, German 143, and CC Sabathia 107 ¹ / ₃. So it can be done especially as the Yanks are projecting to have a strong attack and bullpen again. Plus, they haven’t hit the best of their potential base, so if a Kyle Hendricks or German Marquez or Luis Castillo suddenly becomes available during the season, they are positioned to trade again. And who even knows with the COVID-19 pandemic whether there will be a 162 game season this year. The fewer games the better, the better this Yankee rotation can be maximized.
Maybe the Yanks will keep adding to the group. But that is not easy. The $ 2.25 million salary for 2021 made Taillon even more attractive as the Yanks got to the $ 210 million luxury tax mark, which is their season opening budget for 2021.
So the rotations you see now may be what you get to open the season. With Taillon, the group became both more talented and weaker.