Luis Castillo came. Luis Castillo disappeared. On Sunday it was rumored that the Reds Ace was about to be traded to the Yankees.
Reds GM Nick Krall, in lyrics to the team’s beat writers, put out that calling it “completely untrue.” A Yankees official called the report “BS.”
So let’s traverse Castillo – for now. Because Krall also told reporters, “We plan to have him a member of our rotation by 2021.” “Intended” is an interesting word that offers room for maneuver.
But Cincinnati finds itself in a watered-down NL Central, just making it to the playoffs for the first time since 2013, and knows how awful it would play with its fan base to trade in its most talented prime-age star.
Still, teams – especially those in smaller markets – should always ask for their best assets: 1. Can we compete for a title in this player’s control period? 2. Will this asset complete its control period here or eventually be traded? 3. Will the asset’s trading value ever be higher than it is now: if done right, can a return of $ 1.25 be obtained for $ 1 of talent? If you answered no, no and no, why wouldn’t the player be available?
Which brings us to the Yankees, who I think should pay $ 1.25 in exchange for the right $ 1 starter. This is no longer the Yankee way. They believe that discipline and logic and the accumulation of good decisions will be rewarded with a sustained championship. I get it.
Except that some logic has to die with how to win – now that these are Yankees. They can no longer point to the other superpower Dodgers and say they haven’t won since 1988. They can no longer expect the Mets to be their meek Queens neighbor. Hello, Steve Cohen. They cannot expect Gerrit Cole to maintain this level of performance for too many years. Once you pay for Cole, you’re in it to win it. NOW.
However, the Yanks were able to look at their division and assess that no one has yet taken the Blue Jays’ money, the Red Sox still in rebuild mode, the Rays Charlie Morton and Blake Snell have lost, and calculate that they have the 2021 AL East have won in probably seven out of ten times. So why renew now?
Because that was the theory last year and the Rays won the AL East. Because they were in Game 2 with a Deivi Garcia / JA Happ hybrid instead of a no-brainer option.
They can see if Corey Kluber could be their number 2 for Cole in the beginning or if Luis Severino could be when he returns around July 1 after Tommy John’s surgery. There is a thread through the needle scenario where Cole, Kluber and Severino are supported by the talent and depth of Garcia, Domingo German, Michael King, Jordan Montgomery and Clark Schmidt.
The most likely scenario is that they will need a starter by the trading deadline. Why wait? Especially if they can find someone who is cost efficient with years of auditing. Castillo falls into that category, as does the following, but 1. I heard none of the starters below are available, and 2. If and when they do, needy teams start out with better farm systems than the Yankees, like the Blue Jays , Rays and Twins, could beat them. Still, the Yanks should have $ 1.25 available as a temptation for:
1. German Marquez, Rockies
The Righty is underrated, durable, and won’t be released until February 26th. His killer breaking gear would play even better off the heights. He was owed either three years at $ 26 million or four years at $ 39.5 million if his 2024 option is taken and counts $ 8.6 million toward the luxury tax.
Colorado is known for lack of movement in the trading market, so don’t expect this. But I think the Rockies were built wrong. To overcome the physical, tactical drawback of playing a mile high, the Rockies should be the $ 130 million payroll Rays, filling their organization with powerful weapons and their roster with versatility and depth. A financially top-heavy roster featuring Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story keeps homegrown stars that fans like, but avoids enough depth everywhere. They need to deepen and spread their money.
If I’m the Yanks, at least I offer a package of Garcia or Schmidt, Clint Frazier or Miguel Andjuar and high-ceiling pitching prospects Luis Gil or Luis Medina and see if that’s close to $ 1.25.
2. Kyle Hendricks, Cubs
All of the choices on this list come from NL, many from the weak NL Central, so think about the competition. But think of Hendricks as a true Jimmy Key with durability – a smart artist with fortitude. He has three years for $ 43.5 million left or four for $ 58 million if his 2024 option is taken up and will cost $ 14 million for the luxury taxation (so the Cubs should take Adam Ottavino as a financial counterbalance if the Yanks hoped under remain) to the $ 210 million threshold). The Cubs would rather move Kris Bryant or Willson Contreras and still try to win the NL Central with Hendricks as the ace.
3. Pablo Lopez, Marlins
The Marlins love their rotation top three of Sandy Alcantara, Sixto Sanchez and Lopez. But they will struggle to recruit a felony. Offer a deal around Frazier or Andujar plus Estevan Florial. Lopez may not be a No. 2 starter, but he’s durable with elite makeup and strike-tossing abilities, and even arbitrage isn’t eligible until the next off-season.
4. Brandon Woodruff, Brewers
Milwaukee has one of the worst farming systems of the majors. Woodruff is one of the few assets to help deepen the talent base. His stuff is at Marquez and Castillo, but without the durability or consistency. So he should return less for it. Still, he turns 28 on February, has four years of control with those high-end guns, and has to pay just $ 3.275 million this season.
5. Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks
Is Arizona looking at the Dodgers and Padres and think it will be a while before NL West can win? Will Gallen be part of that club? He will not even be eligible for arbitration until next season. The right-wing has one of the best inventories of fields, because he not only overwhelms with things, but also with diversity.