The Coalition for Innovation in Epidemic Preparedness (CEPI), the Gavi Vaccine Alliance and the World Health Organization (WHO), together with UNICEF, have published the first preliminary distribution forecast of COVAX, the mechanism for the equitable distribution of vaccines worldwide. According to preliminary figures, it is expected to yield 337.2 million in the first half of the year.
The document includes the distribution of at least 240 million doses of the AstraZeneca / Oxford vaccine, which will be produced by the Serum Institute of India, and 96 million doses of the same vaccine under the prior purchase agreement between Gavi and AstraZeneca for the first and second quarter of 2021. For example, in the first six months of the year, a total of 336 million doses will be distributed to the 145 countries that are part of COVAX, but on condition that the WHO authorizes it as an emergency application.
As for the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine, approved by the WHO on the emergency list, COVAX currently expects 1.2 million doses of this immunization to be available in the first quarter of 2021, although “subject to completion of additional similarities”. As of the second quarter, the 92 countries will have “additional volumes”, according to the purchase agreement between Gavi and Pfizer-BioNTech for a maximum of 40 million doses.
“The goal of sharing interim distribution with countries, even in today’s highly dynamic global delivery environment, is to provide governments and health systems with the information they need to plan their national immunization programs. Final allocations will come in due course. Gavi CEO Seth Berkley said at a press conference, who pointed out that the total price of the operation “will be published in due course”.
So, COVAX’s goal, as Berkley has reiterated, is to deliver 2.3 billion doses by the end of the year, 1.8 billion of which would go to low-income countries at no cost to their governments.
This preliminary distribution forecast describes the expected delivery of vaccine doses to all participants in COVAX, with the exception of participants who have exercised their right of exclusion, have not submitted vaccine applications, or have not yet received a dose.
Given the “limitation of doses, the complexity associated with the deployment of a vaccine that requires an ultra-cold chain and to ensure the maximum impact on public health”, those responsible for COVAX have decided to limit the number of countries to the first deliveries of the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine to enable successful distribution and delivery.
Currently, total doses cover an average of 3.3 percent of the total population of the 145 participants. “This is in line with COVAX’s goal of reaching at least 3 percent of the population in all countries in the first half of the year, enough to protect the most vulnerable groups, such as health workers,” he said. Berkley added.
35 million doses for Latin America
Up to 36 countries and territories in Latin America will receive more than 35 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine from the COVAX initiative, which could be received from the second half of February and through the second quarter of 2021.
Four Latin American countries, Bolivia, Colombia, El Salvador and Peru, have been selected for the ‘Primera Ola’ pilot program and will receive 378,000 doses of Pfizer vaccines from mid-February.
Specifically, the countries are: Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Granada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Dominican Republic, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela.
At a press conference this Monday, Bruce Aylward, WHO’s senior adviser, recalled that they are projections based on the pharmaceutical company’s estimates. “There are many warnings and considerations as producers may have smaller volumes than they expected, there may be delays in granting emergency permits for use and this could change,” he said.
“We are still waiting for the actual projections of how many doses there will be in February and March as you will have seen that there are some technical difficulties in vaccine manufacturing at this point and there may be less to distribute,” added WHO Deputy Director Mariangela Simao