All the things that could prolong the COVID-19 pandemic – allowing this virus to become a part of our lives for longer than anyone wants – are happening right before our eyes.
The big picture: Today, the US is still making fantastic progress on vaccinations. But as variants of the virus cause new outbreaks and infect more children, the US is also getting a preview of what the future might hold if our vaccination effort loses momentum – as experts fear it will soon.
Driving the news: The UK variant is driving a fresh surge in cases in Michigan, and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has opposed reintroducing the lockdown measures it had embraced earlier in the pandemic.
- Variants are beginning to infect more children, even as schools reopen quickly, turning the pandemic into “a brand new ball game,” as epidemiologist Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota recently put it.
- New research confirms that our existing vaccines don’t work as well against the South African variety.
Between the lines: This is a preview of the longer, darker future of the coronavirus that the US could face without enough vaccinations – one that many experts consider quite likely.
- While the pace of vaccinations is still high, there is a growing fear that it is on the verge of slowing down. In some parts of the country, particularly in the south, the demand for shots has already slowed enough to create a surplus of available doses.
How it works: The wider a virus can spread, the more possibilities it has to mutate. If the US and ultimately the world don’t vaccinate a sufficient percentage of the population, we will prepare for the virus to spread and continue to mutate, and continue to give us new variants that will continue to pose new threats.
There is no need to worry that the facts on the ground today could be disastrous. The vaccines work against the British variant; the South African variety is not currently a dominant species in the US; and we will eventually be able to vaccinate at least some children, which will help the US progress towards herd immunity.
- But if we don’t control the virus well enough, we could see even more new variants years into the future – some of which could be more deadly, some of which are more resistant to vaccines, some of which may be more dangerous to certain specific populations.
- That would translate into a persistent risk of illness or possible death for unvaccinated people and new breeds to reformulate vaccines as new variants continue to emerge.
- And it would lead to a world where today’s vaccine-focused population needs to stay on top of those emerging risks, get booster shots when it’s available, and maybe revitalize some of the pandemic’s social distance measures to stay. . safe.
It comes down to: This dark future is preventable, and our abundant supply of highly effective vaccines is the way to prevent it. The more people vaccinated now, the smaller the role COVID-19 will play in the rest of our lives.
Go deeper: Discover Axios coronavirus variant tracker