This week, all 50 states have officially opened up the option of covid-19 vaccination to all adult residents. But while millions of Americans are still lining up to get their dose, experts warn that the country is rapidly approaching a vaccine surplus, with too few buyers to meet the supply we have available. Once that happens, the question is whether the US will distribute its unwanted vaccines to countries that desperately need them, or even allow them to make their own vaccines.
Tuesday an analysis of the Kaiser Family Foundation concluded that the US will hit a tipping point in enthusiasm for covid-19 vaccination in the next two to four weeks.
Currently, just over 50% of eligible adults have received at least one dose of the vaccine. According to the most recent KFF poll in late March, about 61% of eligible adults have received or are definitely interested in a vaccination. But there remains a constant contingent of Americans – 10% to 15%, based on various polls – who openly say they will never voluntarily receive a vaccine. And even in the best-case scenario – where half of the people who still have doubts about the vaccine end up changing their minds – it would probably only be 28 days before anyone who wants a vaccine gets it, the KFF estimates.
The country is likely to meet with President Biden earlier this week stated purpose of administering 200 million doses within the first 100 days of his presidency. And it is likely that our expected vaccination coverage will still be enough to sharply curtail the spread of the pandemic and limit deaths and serious illnesses caused by covid-19, similar to what has happened in countries like the UK and Israel. But we may not be achieving herd immunity – levels of vaccination coverage and natural immunity that would fully protect people who cannot or do not want to be vaccinated against local outbreaks. Agree enthusiasm dries up, the vaccine supply in the US is also in danger of withering away, even though most of the world remains unvaccinated.
Earlier this month, Vanity Fair reported that discussions had begun within the Biden administration about how the US would donate its future unwanted doses. But these discussions were put on hold as the country continued to experience relatively many new cases and many experts feared a fourth peak of the pandemic would emerge. Since then, while a few states like Michigan have experienced alarming spikes in new cases, the US as a whole has remained on a precarious plateau. However, it’s not just local issues that have slowed down these efforts. Many of the government’s existing contracts with vaccine manufacturers – negotiated by the Trump administration – should be reviewed first, as current language appears to prevent them from giving excess doses to other countries.
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The US and other wealthy countries, as members of the World Trade Organization, have done the same before hindered attempts by poorer countries to secure doses by temporarily forgoing patents that would allow them to produce their own vaccines locally at a much lower cost. And despite recent resources by some lawmakers to change the government’s mind and cast its support behind these waivers ahead of the next WTO general meeting in May, it is not clear whether the US will do so.
All of these setbacks and deliberate decisions can largely, but not completely, protect the US from the pandemic, while many of the world’s poorest countries would. some say will remain largely unprotected until 2024 recent projections.