The United States ambassador to Russia is refusing to leave the country after the Kremlin “advised” him to return home following new sanctions from Biden’s government, two sources briefed on the situation say.
Why it matters: John Sullivan, a respected diplomat who has thus far retained President Biden from the Trump era, is central to one of the most important early tests of Biden’s decision.
- Russia’s State Department announced on Friday that it would exile 10 US diplomats and ban current officials, such as Attorney General Merrick Garland, from visiting Russia.
- But the Russians did not expel Sullivan. Instead, the Kremlin called for him to meet with a top foreign policy official, Yuri Ushakov, who recommended that he return to Washington to consult with Biden officials.
- According to people familiar with his thinking, Sullivan believes that if Putin wants him to leave, he will have to force him.
- A State Department spokesman declined to comment.
The big picture: Last week, in response to Russian cyber espionage and interference in US elections, Biden unveiled a series of sanctions against the Russian economy.
- Biden spoke to President Putin last Tuesday and told him sanctions would be forthcoming, while also exploring the possibility of a summit between the two later this year.
- When announcing the sanctions, Biden called them “proportionate” and noted that he did not want to start an escalation cycle with Putin.
- National security adviser Jake Sullivan spoke with Nikolay Patrushev, secretary of the Russian Security Council on Monday, discussed a possible presidential summit and “agreed to stay in touch,” according to a White House statement.
Flashback: Last month, Biden agreed that Putin was a “murderer”. The Russian – accused of poisoning some of his enemies – responded by wishing the new president “ good health. ”
- Putin also called Russia’s American ambassador, Anatoly Antonov, back to Moscow for consultations.
- The diplomatic signal was meant to underline that the Kremlin was unhappy with the Biden government.
Between the lines: In response to the new sanctions, Russia has not expelled Sullivan – or made him a “persona non grata”, “PNG” in diplomatic parlance.
- “If the Kremlin wants him to PNG, that would be a very escalating move,” said Mike McFaul, who served as ambassador to Russia under President Obama. “The last PNG ambassador from Moscow was George Kennan, by Stalin in 1952.”
- “I applaud Ambassador Sullivan for continuing his job,” he said.
The intrigues: Russia is gathering thousands of troops along the border with Ukraine.
- US officials have worked behind the scenes with allies to warn Russia of the cost of capturing additional territory, but have made it clear that they will not intervene militarily to deter Russia in a non-NATO country.
it comes down to: Biden wants stability and predictability to determine his relations with Putin and Russia, while his government focuses on China.
- By ignoring the Kremlin’s suggestion to recall Sullivan, the government is not taking the bait to escalate, while making it clear that Biden is allowed to decide who his ambassador is, not Putin.