The prediction is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, experience, literature and expert advice
Dr. Marty Makary, a professor at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine in the United States, stated in an opinion article published in the Wall Street Journal that that country will have herd immunity to Covid-19 by April.
Makary, who is also a professor at the Bloomberg School of Public Health, says the fact that the number of cases has dropped by 77% in the past six weeks has been ignored, which he says is a rapid decline.
The doctor attributes this decrease in cases largely to the fact that natural immunity to previous infections is much more common than can be measured by tests.
“The tests only detected 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when someone caught the virus during the pandemic. Applying a time-weighted average catch of 1 in 6.5 for the 28 million cumulative confirmed cases would mean that about 55% of Americans have natural immunity, ”he says.
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According to the prestigious doctor, to the issue of natural immunity is added that people are vaccinated. Consider in this sense that 15% of Americans received the vaccine during the week, a figure that is rising rapidly.
It hints that, according to estimates by former Food and Drug Commissioner, Scott Gottlieb, 250 million doses will have been delivered to about 150 million people by the end of March.
“Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. The antibody test does not capture antigen-specific T cells that develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. In 2008, 90 years later, it was discovered that survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu had memory cells capable of producing neutralizing antibodies, ”he explained.
Dr. Makary, also an advisor to the Sesame Care health service and author of the book “The Price We Pay,” assures that his prediction that the Covid-19 will largely disappear in April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and discussions with experts, as well as direct observation of how difficult it is for poor people to access tests, resulting in very few infections.
“Many experts, along with politicians and journalists, are afraid to talk about herd immunity. The term has political overtones as some suggested the US would tear Covid itself apart to achieve herd immunity. That was a reckless idea. But herd immunity is the inevitable result of viral spread and vaccination. When the virus’s chain of transmission is broken in several places, it can be more difficult to spread, and so are new strains, ”he said.
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Professor Makary also discussed the experience of herd immunity in other regions, such as the Brazilian city of Manaus, as well as the decrease in daily cases in other countries where there are new variants of Covid-19, such as the United Kingdom, South Africa, the same Brazil .
In his opinion piece, he stated that while some medical experts agreed with his prediction of herd immunity, they advised him not to speak publicly on the subject for fear that people would stop taking precautions or reject the vaccine .
The same is true of the idea that in the United States, while urging the population to get vaccinated, it is also necessary to reopen schools and society to limit the damage from closures and long-term isolation.