The coronavirus pandemic may no longer be spreading exponentially in the UK, according to government data indicating the country’s third lockdown is working.
The official estimate of the “R-rate” – which measures how many people each infected person transmits the virus – fell to between 0.8 and 1, the results released Friday showed. When R is greater than 1, the virus spreads exponentially. Last week, the R rate was estimated at 1.2 to 1.3.
The government said the number of cases remains “dangerously high” and urged the public to abide by lockdown rules.
“There is a small minority that doesn’t, a tiny minority that ignores the rules and thinks they don’t matter,” Environment Minister George Eustice told Times Radio. “We can see it does matter when you consider the pressure on hospitals at the moment.”
Nonetheless, the data will be welcome news to the government of Boris Johnson, which was forced to re-lock the country in early January after a highly contagious new strain of the disease emerged.
Falling rates
The figures from the Department of Health show that the estimated R rate has decreased in all regions of England since last week. In London it fell to between 0.7 and 0.9, indicating that the disease is clearly on the way out in the capital, where hospitals are still under severe pressure. London Mayor Sadiq Khan reiterated his call to the government on Friday to tighten regulations.
The estimates for the R rate are consistent with findings from other sources. Earlier on Friday, statistics suggested the number of people in England infected with Covid-19 fell slightly in the week to January 16.
Covid infection rates in England are falling for the first time in a month
Johnson’s government wants to start lifting the restrictions once it vaccinates 15 million of the most vulnerable people and their caregivers. But the prime minister said on Thursday that the rapidly expanding variant could mean lockdown measures are needed in the summer.
Caution
Papers released Friday by the government’s Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies show there is cause for caution, even with an R rate below 1. According to a Jan. 6 paper, scientists expect prevalence of the virus to be slower. will drop than during the first blocking. last spring, even if R remains below 1 until mid-February.
“As a result, it is very likely that hospital occupancy will be at or above current levels by mid-February,” he said. At the time, there were nearly 32,000 coronavirus patients in UK hospitals, according to government data, a figure already about a third higher than the peak in the first wave of last April.
Officials have repeatedly said that they expect cases to stabilize and decline in the current lockdown well before the number of hospitalizations and daily deaths show a significant improvement.
(Updates with comments from Eustice, Khan from the fourth paragraph)