As millions of people in Texas lost heat and electricity in a historic cold snap early this week, the future of renewable energy in the great and growing state and elsewhere was re-examined, aided by images of ice-covered wind turbines.
But blaming renewables at a time when they need more, not less, of the national electricity system to modernize is shortsighted, especially as more extreme weather due to climate change is likely, energy analysts say.
Read: Millions in Texas still lack power in the midst of a record cold
For one thing, the blame for the Texas power crisis, at least according to early readings from Texas utility officials, and backed by analysts, was manifold. That fact alone should drive the pursuit of a diverse energy portfolio and an improved grid to help the US curb emissions that contribute to global warming and keep energy relatively cheap, especially for vulnerable communities. .
“The dangerous situations in Texas and Oklahoma underscore the urgency of the climate crisis and the need to make transformational investments in our country’s infrastructure, including the power grid,” said Lori Lodes, Climate Power’s executive director. Initially named Climate Power 2020 due to its then focus on the 2020 election, Climate Power is a policy project initiated by the Center for American Progress Action Fund, the League of Conservation Voters, and the Sierra Club.
Politicians and industry leaders loyal to fossil fuels have this week made a case against renewable energy sources by taking advantage of the fact that wind is an energy source, like solar, that requires planning for periodic generation. Meaning: It is not always completely reliable.
They redoubled their claim that fuel sources, including natural gas, should avoid wind, solar, nuclear, and other options in addition to even as the US tackles climate change and states, including Texas, are embracing more renewable energy sources.
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The industry argues that the power grid is at risk of more frequent rolling blackouts, such as those in Texas and other, mostly plain, states. California’s rolling power outages last summer were in part due to the premature retirement of gas-fired power plants as the state pursued a clean energy agenda. In fact, Texas Senator Ted Cruz saw his tweeted criticism of California resurface this week as more than 4 million Texans became powerless.
So what source was behind the Texas mess?
“The Texas crisis was not caused by the state’s renewable energy industry. The greatest loss in generation came from gas-fired power plants, with the loss of wind farms far behind, ”said Ed Crooks, vice president of Americas at Wood Mackenzie.
The use of natural gas for residential heating competes with its use in electricity generation, and that use was extensive in typically warm Texas. The shortage could be due to extreme weather events or could be the first sign that winter planning for a mix of renewable and fossil fuels needs to be strengthened.
Utilities in Texas, which rely primarily on natural gas and wind year-round, are said to have scaled back their wind power planning before the storm, as they usually do in winter. Summer is peak energy consumption, and in winter, wind makes up only 25% of the state’s energy mix. Wind power during the ice storm met what is typically required at this time of year, officials suggested. Most of the outages occurred in parts of the Texas grid that rely on natural gas, coal, and nuclear power, sources that make up more than two-thirds of winter power generation.
The cold snap was unique, but so was the Texas power grid.
Almost all of Texas operates as a single power grid that is not integrated with surrounding states. That network is operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, ERCOT, a non-profit organization controlled by the state legislature and free from national regulations. At the best of times, it causes wide swings in prices in both directions; in the worst times, like this week, homes and businesses get dark and cold.
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The American Gas Association said dissecting exactly what went wrong in Texas during the freeze and what takeaway food from that experience could inform that a change in natural gas use for electricity will take more time in the future.
National data from the AGA showed that since most of the country covered cold, 151.7 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas was delivered in the US on Feb. 14 and 149.8 Bcf on Feb. 15. Sunday was the second-highest delivery day on record, and the two-day combination set a record for the highest demand for a two-day period. The group represents approximately 200 local energy companies, including some in Texas, that supply natural gas to utility companies. Ultimately, approximately 71 million customers in the US use the gas from the firms AGA represents.
Discussion over the next days, weeks and months “should include how we use and appreciate the role the system plays in the coldest days of the year … taking into account disruptions and severe weather events,” said Richard Meyer, director of energy markets, analysis and standards with the AGA.
Read: Freezing in the US is leading to a revival of natural gas and the prices of uranium melting
Renewable energy also needs a rethink.
“The power loss has been a warning of the problems that will arise as the share of renewable power generation on the grid increases,” said Crooks of Wood Mackenzie.
Production, transmission and distribution equipment and the design of the electricity market will become even more important to face the challenges posed by a network with many renewable energy sources.
“Distributed resources, including storage and demand response, will also have to play a greater role. Texas’s renewable capacity would need to be increased more than tenfold to provide the same amount of energy produced by the fossil fuel fleet on Monday, even at a lower level, ”said Wood Mackenzie analysts.
Since this would prove excessive at some times of the year, storage will matter immensely, including batteries, hydrogen, or some other technology.
Wade Scheur, research director for the Americas at Wood MacKenzie, said there are some specific lessons from Texas. For starters, the state has several major population centers, but renewable energy clusters are a long way from major cities, requiring more miles of potentially vulnerable transmission lines.
And there is no winter reliability mandate for the state-run utility system like in other parts of the regulated US, for example.
“There is little incentive for renewables, or even other sources, to increase capacity. Many energy sources are seasonally mothballed from October to May, ”says Scheur. “Perhaps capacity and incentives to be able to produce better in the winter should receive extra attention.”
This could be the case in Texas and elsewhere. Weather-related power outages are on the rise in the US as climate change causes more extreme storms and temperature swings, writes Professor Michael Webber of Energy Resources at the University of Texas at Austin in a commentary.
“States designing their buildings and infrastructure for warm weather may need to account for more major chills, and states with cold weather can expect more heat waves,” he said. “As the conditions in Texas show, there is no time to be wasted making it weatherproof.”