Many infectious disease experts in the US are cautiously optimistic. Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths have all fallen sharply in recent weeks as the country has left its deadliest wave ever behind and vaccination campaigns are increasingly shot into people’s arms. Warmer weather is around the corner.
Still, hard-won progress against the coronavirus pandemic remains fragile, public health experts say. The number of cases is still high and may be leveling off; current levels of built-up immunity are not enough to safely drop precautions; and more dangerous variants threaten to gain a foothold in the US and exploit security incidents.
‘Things are weak. Now is not the time to relax restrictions, ”Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Friday. “We can’t feel comfortable.”
Covid-19 cases in the US have declined in recent weeks, with the seven-day average dropping 74% since the January 11 peak, said Dr. Walensky Monday. The average number of daily hospital admissions, now 6,500 per day, is down 60% and is at its lowest point since the fall.
Covid-19 reported cases in the US daily.
Note: For all 50 States and DC, US Territories and Cruises. Last updated
Source: Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering
There is no explanation for the declines, health authorities say, but probably the biggest contributor is changed behavior. People are likely to take more precautions, after the holidays and a deadly winter in which the US exceeded more than 500,000 deaths from Covid-19. In addition, state and local authorities have increased restrictions in response to the rising numbers.
Epidemiologists also roughly estimate that at least a quarter of the population has had Covid-19, with most developing some degree of immune response. That, coupled with the relatively smaller number of people who have been fully immunized, reduces the number of susceptible people in the population and helps slow the spread. Vaccinations have also likely decreased hospitalizations and deaths, after being rolled out to residents in nursing homes and long-term care facilities.
“We’re coming out of a holiday bubble, and we’re coming out of a very dark and cold winter that may have kept people indoors,” said Darlene Bhavnani, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Texas at Austin. “I hope we are outside more and without major holidays, we will continue to see this decline.”
Some states and provinces have begun to relax security measures since conditions have improved. Nearly a year after the pandemic, many people and communities are eager to return to a more normal version of life. But public health authorities advise caution, as there is another rise in the number of cases on the table in the spring.
“The pressure to get back to something more normal will be immense and irresistible,” said Robert Wachter, chair of the medicine division at the University of California, San Francisco. “I hope we just think about it carefully, we don’t just announce victory and open the floodgates. This virus is smart, and it will come back to bite us. “
Letting go of mitigation measures too aggressively or prematurely will likely lead to a recovery in cases – as happened last spring and summer, Dr. Bhavnani and other health authorities.
Daily confirmed cases and hospital admissions, although down significantly from January, are at a similar level to last summer’s peaks, and the declines have stalled over the past week. The number of cases has increased over the past three days compared to the week before, and the recent shift “must be taken extremely seriously,” said Dr. Walensky.
The amount of immunity built up by both infection and vaccination is still far from the estimated 70% to 80% or more needed to stop the spread by population-level immunity alone.
Newer, more transferable variants make the calculation more difficult. The variant that emerged in the UK can spread much more easily than previous versions of the virus and could become the dominant strain in the US in March. A variant that emerged in South Africa has shown some resistance to currently available vaccines and therapies.
“I’m afraid that once we reach a level that feels safer for society, and if people decide to ease restrictions on communities or themselves, we will see this in cases,” said Ajay Sethi, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University. from Wisconsin. -Madison. “And in this case it is a return in the new variant that is more difficult to control.”
States and cities have responded to the improvement in numbers with a patchwork of rules and regulations based on guidelines from their respective health departments as elected officials attempt to navigate the ever-changing pandemic landscape. Some states, such as Iowa and North Dakota, have dropped their mask mandates.
New York State, which recently reopened New York City indoor dining and limited-capacity arenas, will also expand nursing home attendance rules, allow 25% attendance in movie theaters, and expand wedding attendance. Health officials in the state are cautiously optimistic. “To date, we have delivered more than 3 million shots, but everyone should remember that this pandemic is not over,” said Jeffrey Hammond, a spokesman for the New York State Department of Health.
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In Virginia, Democratic Governor Ralph Northam said Wednesday that he would lift a statewide curfew and limit the number of people allowed in outdoor gatherings starting in March.
Lilian Peake, a state epidemiologist with the Virginia Department of Health, said vaccines offer the most hope for fewer infections and a return to anything normal. “The vaccines we have are working well and are a path forward,” said Dr. Peake.
Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego said she would only rest after all residents and visitors coming to town have been vaccinated.
Arizona experienced a severe increase in the number of reported coronavirus infections in the summer of 2020, but those new cases were overshadowed by an even higher rise in the fall and winter. In the summer, there were regularly more than 5,000 daily confirmed cases, while the number of cases in January was regularly more than 10,000 a day, according to data from the Arizona Department of Health Services. In contrast, this week’s daily case numbers were around 1,000.
“Like so many people, I have been encouraged to see the number of cases decline,” said Ms. Gallego, a Democrat. “At the same time, I am wary of celebrating too soon.”
Write to Brianna Abbott at [email protected] and Talal Ansari at [email protected]
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