The panorama of COVID-19 on the island is uncertain due to the limited data available during the holidays

To determine whether it is possible to relax the current restrictions set by an executive order in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, whether they should remain the same or even if more controls are needed, it will be released this week. from a scientific point of view, said Dr. José Rodríguez today. Orengo, director of the Public Health Trust.

The warning flag comes days before the expiration of the current executive order, the last one signed by former governor Wanda Vázquez Garced.

The doctor explained that there is only enough information until December 23, so he stressed that before giving an opinion on changes to the order, the collection of samples or the administration of COVID-19 tests must be stabilized.

“The number of tests done so far on December 24th is much less than before”he explained. For example, 58,000 tests were performed in the first week of December, while some 48,000 tests were processed in the week of 14 to 20 of the same month. Those numbers remained stable until December 23, but between December 24 and 27, the number of tests performed fell by more than 75%.

In that sense he emphasized that “The amount of information we have is limited. The same will happen during the New Years week. […] We understand that the number of people who became infected was decreasing, but due to the decrease in the number of tests performed, we cannot give a clear picture ”.

Rodríguez Orengo clarified that it will not be until next Sunday when there could be enough information “whether there is really a decline or whether we will increase after the Christmas period (in the case of COVID-19, hospital admissions).”

For his part, the designated Secretary of the Ministry of Health, Carlos Mellado, said Governor Pedro Pierluisi will make his decision on the next executive order based on the context available on the day of the decision.

“One of the things the Governor has said is that, as far as possible, because this is scientific, we should promote an orderly and safe reopening”Mellado noted. Aside from the restrictions in the executive order, the official said other actions are underway, such as the massive testing plan ordered by the governor on Saturday. This plan involves taking COVID-19 tests in places classified as difficult to access, including the municipal islands of Vieques and Culebra.

The goal, Mellado said, is “to have an epidemiological picture, to know right now how many patients and percentage of infections we have, and to see all these efforts translated into reducing the number of infections” in conjunction with contact tracing. With this plan, it also aims to increase the identification of patients with mild or moderate symptoms who are candidates for treatment with monoclonal antibodies as treatment for COVID-19, thereby avoiding and reducing hospital admissions.

Possible record of deaths in December

Dr. Rodríguez Orengo also indicated that until December 23, the number of those infected remained high and the number of deaths had not decreased as expected. He even announced that current numbers suggest December will be the month with the most deaths from COVID-19 on the island.

Until yesterday, November and December had the same number of deaths, 323. However, the Trust would receive information on deaths last night in the last week of December. “We understand this will exceed the number of November, which was the month with the most deaths in Puerto Rico until then,” the director remarked.

Nor is the decline in hospital admissions a signal that can be relied solely on to detect changes in executive order at the moment, as it is not clear whether this decline responds to a real decline in the number of cases or responds to other particulars of the Christmas time. On the other hand, “we are still a bit high (in hospital admissions) to give a break to health workers working in this area,” explains the biochemist.

The former state epidemiologist, Ángeles Rodríguez, agreed that while the numbers for the past few days reflect a drop in hospital admissions for COVID-19, there is currently no overall improvement justifying a relaxation of the measures imposed by an executive order.

“I don’t think the numbers are more open (regarding greater flexibility), the numbers have not changed that much, they are stable, the number of hospital admissions is down, but that has a number of factors”, Hero.

If the measures are flexible, the doctor warned that the consequences should be analyzed between 15 and 21 days after the entry into force, while he reiterated that there is currently nothing to support that there is a lower risk of infection in the community or a decrease in infections.

Rodríguez indicated that, during the Christmas period, the number of hospital admissions has historically declined, but that number stabilizes again after Epiphany Day, so that it would be after January 6 when a more accurate scenario could be analyzed in terms of hospital admissions for COVID-19.